Global Ag News for July 28.23

TOP HEADLINES

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 403k tons in the week ending July 22 from 414k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 2% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 14% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $13.57 per short ton, an increase of $1.05 from the previous week

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 1/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal up $2.20; Soyoil down 0.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 52 1/2 in SRW, up 61 1/2 in HRW, up 80 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 40 3/4; Soybeans up 44 1/2; Soymeal up $13.40; Soyoil up 3.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.2% in SRW, down 3.0% in HRW, down 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 22.4%; Soybeans down 0.6%; Soymeal down 3.9%; Soyoil up 8.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans down 15 yuan; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 128; Corn up 11 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 23 ringgit (-0.57%) at 4003.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,398 SRW Wheat contracts; 448 Oats; 0 Corn; 11 Soybeans; 169 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 147 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 27 were: SRW Wheat down 582 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,287, Corn up 18,015, Soybeans down 8,413, Soymeal up 679, Soyoil up 1,338.

Northern Plains: Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue in the Northern Plains through next week with several disturbances passing through. Temperatures will moderate with a cold front moving through Friday. Any rainfall will be helpful for providing needed moisture to crops and forages in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: Heat continues across the Central and Southern Plains through next week, with many days in the 90s and some 100-degree readings, exacerbating dryness issues in parts of the region. A front settling south through the region is more likely to bring showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Additional disturbances could bring showers through next week. Precipitation is most likely to occur over northern areas, which could help lessen the effects of heat there and provide needed rainfall to some drought areas.

Midwest: Heat will continue to spread through the Midwest over the next few days. Most areas will see temperatures in the 90s, while some 100s will be possible in the southwest. With drought in place, any rainfall will be welcome and may potentially bring down temperatures at times, which looks to occur in sporadic fashion the next couple of days. A frontal passage should bring some more widespread rainfall for the weekend and less extreme temperatures for next week. Another system may move through with scattered showers in the middle of next week. Stress should be very high for this week, coming at a critical time for corn especially, but may relax next week.

Delta: Temperatures are increasing well into the 90s for the Delta through next week, causing stress to areas with more limited soil moisture. Some 100-degree readings will be possible at times. A front sagging south through the Corn Belt will likely stall to the north. Though some limited showers may be possible across the north, it will be drier for the region, causing stress for filling soybeans and cotton.

Canadian Prairies: A storm system continues to drag through the Canadian Prairies for the next couple days, but further precipitation appears limited. A secondary impulse may bring showers to southern areas that are in more desperate need this weekend, with another early next week, but that is still uncertain. Crops across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan are begging for rain while wheat and canola are in reproductive to filling stages but are continuing to be plagued by drier conditions.

The player sheet for 7/27 had funds: net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 13,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales totaling 256,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 108,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday.
• CORN PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn in an international tender for up to 120,000 metric tons seeking supplies sourced only from Argentina or Brazil which closed on Wednesday, traders said on Thursday.
• PASSED CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender on Wednesday for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 metric tons of soymeal

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China was the top buyer of soybeans in the week with 318k tons
• Mexico was the top buyer of corn and Philippines led in wheat 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 17.9k tons of the 25.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

CROP TOUR: North Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Lower Than Last Year

North Dakota spring wheat yield is estimated at 47.4 bu/acre for the top-producing US state, according to final assessment of Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour.

• That compares to last year’s yield of 50 bu/acre amid good weather
• Latest estimate for state is above the USDA’s 47 bu/acre estimate
• Crop tour’s North Dakota durum wheat yield estimate is 43.9 bu/acre vs USDA projection of 34 bu/acre
  • NOTE: Yield was 40 bu/acre last year
• NOTE: Crop tour spring wheat estimate based on 383 fields surveyed over three days

U.S. corn production faces challenges and Brazil’s safrinha in full swing – Refinitiv Commodities Research

• U.S. corn production down as crop conditions deteriorate amid severe lack of moisture
• U.S. domestic demand sees an increase, but sluggish U.S. corn exports keeps the pressure away regardless of production threats
• The Black Sea deal
• Brazil corn production remains afloat with second crop safrinha in full swing; Argentina activates the “Agro Dollar” for corn

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 27: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2022-23 corn production est. maintained at 34m tons, with 68% of the crop harvested
• 2023-24 wheat planting area est. unchanged at 6.0m ha

Canada Canola Processing Rose 17% Y/y in June: StatCan

Canola processing rose 17% in June from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Thursday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 323k tons, and meal output at 458k tons
• Aug.-June crushings up 16.4% from year ago to 9.055m tons

EU Cuts Soft-Wheat Crop Estimate by 2.5m Tons; Corn Declines

This year’s soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 126.4m tons, below a June estimate for 128.9m tons, the European Commission said in a report.

• Export estimate kept steady at 32m tons
• Barley crop estimate cut to 48.7m tons, versus 49.7m tons
• Corn crop estimate cut to 63m tons, versus 63.7m tons

Silo blast in southern Brazil kills at least eight, one missing

At least eight people were killed and nearly a dozen were injured after a grain silo explosion on Wednesday at an agricultural co-operative in southern Brazil, the government of Parana state where the incident occurred and the company involved said on Thursday.

The blast happened at the C.Vale co-operative in the small town of Palotina, about 600 km (370 miles) from the state’s capital Curitiba. Parana is one of Brazil’s top farm states.

C.Vale said in a statement that cause of the explosion cannot be determined at this time as rescue workers were still looking for a missing person.

A company spokesperson said seven of those who died were foreign workers, mostly Haitians, and one was Brazilian.

C.Vale said the silo where the explosion occurred stored about 12,000 metric tons of soybeans and 40,000 metric tons of corn.

The company, which stores grains in 125 units across five Brazilian states and in Paraguay, had said earlier in the day nearly a dozen people had been hospitalized after the blast, excluding the fatalities.

Jose Ricken, president of Parana’s farm cooperative group OCEPAR, told reporters that this was an isolated case, adding there had been no such incidents in the area “in a long time.”

A similar explosion took place in 1993, C.Vale confirmed.

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 403k tons in the week ending July 22 from 414k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 2% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 14% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $13.57 per short ton, an increase of $1.05 from the previous week

US Corn and Soybean Crops Increase Drought Exposure: July 25

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 25, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by 4 percentage points from the previous week to 59%
• This increase follows three consecutive weeks of decline
• Soybean crops in drought rose by 3 points to 53%
• Spring wheat showed the biggest increase among major crops, rising 12 points to 43%

Rhine river levels in Germany rise after rain, north too low

Heavy rain has raised water levels on the river Rhine in Germany enabling normal shipping in some areas, but the river is still too shallow in northern areas for cargo vessels to sail fully loaded, commodity traders said on Friday.

Dry weather in June meant the river became too shallow for vessels to sail fully loaded and ship operators imposed surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels sailing partly empty, increasing costs for cargo owners.

“Rain has prevented a crisis in shipping so far this year,” one trader said. “River water levels are falling regularly but also rising regularly so cargo is being delivered but with extra costs for industry.”

Water levels at the chokepoint of Kaub WL-KAUB have risen sharply after hitting their lowest so far this year earlier this week and have now reached levels allowing full vessel loadings, they said.

The Rhine is still too shallow for normal sailings in northern areas around Cologne and Duisburg. Some vessels, depending on the type, can only sail less than half full in northern regions, the traders said. More rain in the coming days could provide further improvement.

German industry is finding new ways to transport cargoes from coal to chemicals as increasingly frequent low water levels on the Rhine disrupt Europe’s largest economy, major cargo shippers told Reuters.

The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grains, minerals, coal and oil products, including heating oil. German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in the summer of 2022 after a drought and heat wave led to unusually low water levels on the Rhine.

 

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