Global Ag News For July 2

 TODAY —-  COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $0.24; Soyoil up 0.74.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 25 in SRW, up 28 3/4 in HRW, up 37 in HRS; Corn is up 72 1/4; Soybeans up 136; Soymeal up $3.62; Soyoil up 5.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 3/4 in SRW, down 21 1/4 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $9.40; Soyoil down 0.53.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 96 yuan; Soymeal up 96; Soyoil up 162; Palm oil up 182; Corn up 7 — Malasyian Palm is up 79. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 79 ringgit (+2.13%) at 3789 heading for its biggest weekly advance since early May on expectations of a boost in exports and stronger soybean oil amid concerns about tight global vegetable oil supplies.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers far south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers north Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 7/1 had funds: net sellers of 9,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 9,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 1 were: SRW Wheat down 8,946 contracts, HRW Wheat down 11, Corn up 9,189, Soybeans up 4,357, Soymeal down 2,659, Soyoil up 2,754.

There were changes in registrations (-7 Oats, -53 Soyoil, -17 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 9 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 615 Soyoil; 407 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of corn, 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of wheat, with a bidding deadline of July 6
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat

U.S. Soybean Crushings at 174M Bushels in May

• Crushing 3.4% lower than same period last year
• Crude oil production 0.7% lower than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 12.2% y/y
• In a Bloomberg survey, analysts estimated 173.4m bu

Ukraine exports 48.8 mln tonnes of grain, oilseeds in 2020/2021 farming year – UGA – Interfax Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire

Ukraine finished the 2020/2021 agricultural year, from July to June, with exports of 48.8 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, which is 17% less than the volumes forecast a year previously, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) said in a statement on its website.

According to the organization, the total harvest of these crops in the 2020/2021 farming year amounted to 84.2 million tonnes.

Wheat exports in the specified period amounted to 16.5 million tonnes, against 20 million tonnes in the 2019/2020 farming year, with a harvest of 25.3 million tonnes, against 28 million tonnes, respectively. Wheat exports thus did not reach the export limit of 17.5 million tonnes stipulated in the memorandum between market participants and the relevant ministry.

Ukraine also exported 23.5 million tonnes of corn, against 30 million tonnes in the 2019/2020 farming year, with a harvest of about 30 million tonnes, which is also less than the 24 million tonnes limit stipulated in the memorandum.

Asia Grains-Black Sea prices rise in Asia on higher freight costs

• Prices of wheat from the Black Sea region in Asia rose this week on the back of higher shipping costs, two trade sources said.
• “Freight for bulk vessels is now more than $60 a tonne from Black Sea to Southeast Asia, up from around $50 a tonne a week ago,” said one of the traders. “Even though Russia and Ukraine are expecting bumper production, cost for buyers in Asia is rising.”
• Wheat cargoes from the Black Sea region are being offered at $305-$310 a tonne, including cost and freight, up from $280 a tonne few weeks ago

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 6% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending June 26 from the previous weeK

• Barge shipments of corn little changed from the previous week
• Barge shipments of wheat fell 43% from the previous week

 Planalytics Keeps U.S. Soybean Forecast Unchanged at 50.10 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is unchanged from previous forecast of 50.10 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Iowa 56.00 vs 56.10
  • Illinois 59.20 vs 58.90
  • Indiana 56.40 vs 56.00
• Soybean forecasts updated each fortnight until Sept. 9

Planalytics Raises U.S. Corn Forecast to 175.00 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 174.90 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Iowa 193.40 vs 193.70
  • Illinois 196.20 vs 194.70
  • Indiana 183.70 vs 181.20
• Corn forecasts updated each fortnight until Sept. 9

Planalytics Keeps U.S. Winter Wheat Forecast Unchanged at 52.70 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is unchanged from previous forecast of 52.70 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Kansas 52.20 vs 51.10
  • Oklahoma 39.10 vs 38.90
• Winter wheat forecasts updated each fortnight until July 1

Planalytics Lowers U.S. Spring Wheat Forecast to 45.20 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is down from previous forecast of 45.70 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • North Dakota 44.10 vs 44.50
  • Minnesota 60.00 vs 62.00
  • Montana 32.90 vs 33.10
• Spring wheat forecasts updated each fortnight until Sept. 9

Argentina Crop Exporters Sold $3.36b on FX Market in June

That’s a 43% increase y/y, but a 5.2% fall m/m, Ciara-Cec, Argentina’s crop export and crushing chamber, says in an emailed statement.

• Global crop prices pared back from highs and the shallowness of the Parana River crop waterway also posed problems in June
• YTD sales are $16.66b, a 1H record for data going back 18 years

India Palm Oil Imports Seen Hitting 1-Yr High on Tax Cut: Sunvin

Imports are likely to climb to a 12-month high in July after the top buyer cut duties and removed restrictions on purchases of refined varieties to shield consumers from high global prices, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

• Inbound shipments may increase to 800,000 tons this month, the highest level since July 2020 when the country imported 824,078 tons
• Imports in June probably totaled 598,780 tons, the lowest since March: Bajoria
• Purchases in August will probably be similar to July purchases

Sinograin Sells 18% of U.S. Corn Offered From State Reserves

China’s state grains stockpiler Sinograin has sold 22,747 tons, or 18% of a total of 123,977 tons of U.S. corn offered at an auction on Friday, co. said in a statement.

• Co. did not give price details
• Sinograin also sold 5,551 tons or 18% of 31,539 tons of Ukrainian corn offered on Friday; no price details given

French Wheat Ratings Unchanged, Barley Harvest Slow: AgriMer

The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition was at 79% in the week to June 28, unchanged from the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Winter-barley was 2% harvested, versus 36% a year earlier

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 1:

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimates unchanged from last week
• Corn harvest 50.6% complete vs 47.6%

SovEcon Lifts Russia 2021-22 Wheat-Export Outlook on Bigger Crop

SovEcon raised its outlook for Russia wheat exports by 1.8m tons to 38.4m tons, assuming that the current export tax mechanism will remain in place for most of the 2021-22 season, the consultant said by email.

• SovEcon expects a “sluggish” export pace at the beginning of the season due to an “untransparent mechanism” for calculating the floating weekly export tax, said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Competition from the EU and Ukraine is also a factor
• Expects domestic consumption to increase thanks to growing livestock sector
• The wheat export estimate for 2020-21 was reduced by 0.2m tons to 37.5m tons
• READ: SovEcon Lifts Russia Wheat, Ukraine Corn Crop Outlooks on Rains

U.S. Spring Wheat Crops in Drought Area Rise to 93%:

• Spring wheat area experiencing moderate to intense drought rose 4 percentage points from the previous week to hit its highest mark of the season
• Corn and soybean areas in drought both eased by 3 points during the week

Top Palm Oil Grower on Track for Record Yield Amid Supply Crunch

• Production in June was probably highest since November
• World is suffering from a shortage of edible oil supplies

Indonesia, supplier of more than half the planet’s palm oil, enjoyed the highest output in seven months in June and is on course to deliver record production this year, helping ease a global crunch in edible oils.

The Southeast Asian country is poised to produce more than 53 million tons of the tropical oil in 2021 with yields peaking in October and November, compared with 51 million tons last year, said Sahat Sinaga, executive director of the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association. Output in June was about 4.8 million tons, Sinaga said in an interview, or almost 10% of annual supply.

Rains have been heavy in places, but overall the weather has been favorable and there have been no disruptions to the harvest process, said Sinaga, who’s also acting chairman of the Indonesian Palm oil Board.

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Fell 5.4% Week Ended June 23: USDA

The following table summarizes the number of railcars hauling U.S. grain to Pacific Northwest, Texas Gulf, Mississippi River ports and to Mexico, according to data in the USDA’s weekly transportation report.

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 6% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending June 26 from the previous week

• Barge shipments of corn little changed from the previous week
• Barge shipments of wheat fell 43% from the previous week

Now China’s Wheat Imports Are Surging Too as Rain Spoils Harvest

• Wheat purchases seen climbing to highest level since mid-1990s
• More weather woes hit Chinese crops as state reserves dwindle

China will probably buy as much as 12 million tons of wheat from abroad in 2021, an increase of more than 40% from a year earlier, said Lin Guofa, an analyst with Bric Agriculture Group, a Beijing-based consulting firm. That’s the highest in a quarter of a century, according to U.S. government data. Imports have already almost doubled in the first five months of the year.

Rising affluence and changing diets are boosting demand for everything from poultry to pork and pastries in China. But government efforts to increase local crop supplies to keep up with demand have been hampered by poor weather and lack of farmland. The country had to triple corn imports this year to feed its enormous hog herds, while soy purchases have doubled in the past decade.

The tight domestic corn market means that more wheat is being used in livestock feed, depleting state stockpiles. That combined with heavy rains that have damaged the harvest and reduced the quality of the grain is the reason behind the rising wheat imports, said Lin from the Bric consulting firm.

The state stockpile sales have left the government with about 40 million tons of reserves, according to some market estimates. That may mean that authorities won’t resume the weekly auctions that were halted in May.

The government sold an unprecedented 45 million tons of wheat from inventories in the year ending May, of which 38 million tons were used for animal feed production, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. Some 36 million tons of wheat may be used for animal feed in the current marketing year, center data show.

China’s wheat crop, the world’s largest, was hit by widespread rains before and after the harvest, which hurt the quality in some top growing areas, including Henan, Shandong and Hebei, Li Shengjun, an analyst with the center, told a conference this week. The amount of low-grade wheat this year will be higher than the normal total of 10 million tons, Li said.

Winter wheat output, which accounts for most of the production, is estimated by the center at 129 million tons this year, or just 1.4% more than in 2020.

Argentina to contract Parana River dredging while long-term tender is drawn up – Reuters News

Argentina will sub-contract the dredging of the Parana River, the country’s key grains export superhighway, for one year while the government prepares a longer-term concession, according to a decree issued on Thursday.

The National Ports Administration has been given authority over the next 12 months to subcontract management of the waterway, while the Transportation Ministry evaluates bids from dredging companies for the long-term concession to follow.

Under the upcoming year it will be the state, rather than the dredging company, that charges tolls to cargo ships using the waterway. Until now the dredging company has charged the fee.