Global Ag News for July 16

 TODAY  — COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 15 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $0.48; Soyoil up 0.22.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 65 1/2 in SRW, up 54 1/4 in HRW, up 95 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 39 3/4; Soybeans up 59 1/2; Soymeal up $0.97; Soyoil up 3.77.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, up 60 in HRS; Corn is down 31 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $13.10; Soyoil up 1.95.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 9 yuan ; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 38; Palm oil up 130; Corn down 28 — Malasyian Palm is up 55. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 55 ringgit (+1.32%) at 4228.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday. East: Scattered showers through Saturday, south Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 7/15 had funds: net buyers of 10,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-15 SRW Wheat, -56 Soymeal). Registration total: 1 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 77 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 262 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 15 were: SRW Wheat down 3,184 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,152, Corn down 1,675, Soybeans up 2,820, Soymeal down 1,709, Soyoil up 1,441.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 118,911 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Friday

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation has issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat for shipment in August and September. The deadline for price offers is July 14.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase around 7,600 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms for arrival between Aug. 20 and Oct. 20. Deadline for price offers is July 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat

U.S. NOPA June Soybean Processing Falls to 152.410M Bushels

The crush compares with 167.26m bushels a year earlier, National Oilseed Processors Association data released by Thomson Reuters showed Thursday.

• June crush marks smallest monthly crush in two years, according to commodities brokerage Allendale Inc.
  • The average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 159.45m bu
• Soybean-oil inventories at the end of last month were 1.537b lbs, compared with 1.78b a year earlier; average estimate by analysts was 1.637b
• In May, the crush was 163.52m bu with soybean-oil reserves at 1.671b lbs

Planalytics Keeps U.S. Soybean Forecast Unchanged at 50.10 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is unchanged from previous forecast of 50.10 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

• Iowa 56.60 vs 56.00
• Illinois 59.40 vs 59.20
• Indiana 56.80 vs 56.40

Planalytics Raises U.S. Corn Forecast to 175.10 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 175.00 bu/acre, and has risen for a third consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

• Iowa 193.90 vs 193.40
• Illinois 196.80 vs 196.20
• Indiana 185.00 vs 183.70

Planalytics Lowers U.S. Spring Wheat Forecast to 37.80 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is down from previous forecast of 45.20 bu/acre, and has fallen for a third consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

• North Dakota 36.20 vs 44.10
• Minnesota 50.00 vs 60.00
• Montana 27.70 vs 32.90

Oilseed Meal Shipments From India Decline 11% M/m in June: Group

Oilseed meal exports fell to 203,612 tons from 228,242 tons a month earlier, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said in an emailed statement Friday.

• NOTE: Exports totaled 229,230 tons in June 2020
• Soybean meal exports 25,918 tons vs 52,434 tons in May
• Rapeseed meal shipments 110,115 tons vs 96,870 tons

Malaysia July 1-15 Palm Oil Exports +5.45% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 5.45% m/m during July 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

Brazil sees spate of corn contract washouts, threatening exports, traders say

Weather-related problems with Brazil’s second corn crop have sparked a spate of companies exiting their contracts on washout clauses, causing what some traders described as potentially the biggest wave of export cancellations for the world’s No. 2 supplier in five years.

According to grain traders and brokers who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, a lot of the corn earmarked for exports is being redirected to the domestic market as premiums are attractive due to shortfalls after the crop was hit by drought and an ill-timed frost.

China’s Pork Imports Set to Plunge 50% as Local Prices Tumble

• Local prices have collapsed as hog herds rebound from disease
• Shrinking demand may bring some relief for global food costs

China’s record demand for foreign pork is about to crater after domestic prices plummeted, potentially easing pressure on the world meat market and cooling at least one constituent of global food costs.

The planet’s biggest importer of the protein staple could slash overseas purchases by more than 50% in the July-December period from the first half of the year because local supplies are now cheaper than overseas shipments, said Jim Huang, head of China-America Commodity Data Analytics, an independent consulting firm focused on agriculture

 China Seen Speeding Up U.S. Soybean Purchases as Margin Rebounds

Crush margins for China’s soybean processors have rebounded from the lowest level in more than two years, according to Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., which should encourage plants to speed up purchases from American farmers.

Chinese crushers haven’t been particularly active in covering their needs for soy loaded from September, the sales season for U.S. beans, because of poor returns, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Center.

So far, the world’s top buyer has booked only about 4 million tons of new-crop soybeans from the U.S., lagging last year’s pace. The U.S. is China’s second-biggest source after Brazil and the two alternate as suppliers due to their different growing seasons.

The negative crush margin — the profit on processing soybeans into oil and meal — is likely to hamper China’s imports in the intervening months, which could drop below last year’s levels, according to the CNGOIC.

But the outlook for demand from farmers is improving after China’s hog herd grew 29% in the first half and the sector completes its recovery from African swine fever. Soybean meal is an important source of protein in livestock diets.

Virus Hotspot Indonesia Expects Palm Oil Supply to Be Resilient

In Indonesia, the new epicenter for the Covid-19 pandemic in Asia, it’s business as usual for the massive palm oil industry.

Zero cases have been reported this year by the roughly 700 member companies under the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, and production of the tropical oil will go on undisrupted, said Mukti Sardjono, executive director of the industry body known as Gapki.

Indonesia is now reporting more cases a day than hard-hit India, making it the new virus hotspot in Asia. The more transmissible delta variant is now spreading from the islands of Java and Bali, where outbreaks prompted a lockdown that shuttered malls, places of worship, parks and restaurants.

The tighter movement curbs have not affected palm oil operations or logistics as it’s considered an essential sector, Gapki’s Chairman Joko Supriyono said by phone. Producers are following strict protocols including by keeping workers within plantations and disinfecting vehicles that come and go, he added.

African Swine Fever Confirmed in Domestic Pigs at German Farms

Germany confirmed its first cases of ASF in domestic pigs at two farms in the eastern state of Brandenburg, the country’s agriculture ministry says in emailed statement.

• Local veterinary offices are attempting to keep the disease from spreading
  • NOTE: ASF cases in Germany had previously been limited to wild boar near the Polish border
• NOTE: Germany has found more than 1,200 ASF cases in wild boar in Brandenburg since the outbreak began last year
• More than 200 animals will be culled at the locations, according to a separate statement from Brandenburg’s health and consumer protection ministry.

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 9% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending July 10 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 17% from the previous week
• Barge shipments of wheat rose 28% from the previous week

Saskatchewan Crops Stressed by Prolonged Heat and Dryness

Topsoil moisture levels in the key Canadian agricultural province decreased further, and many crops are short and thin, Saskatchewan government said Thursday.

• Extremely hot, dry weather combined with minimal rainfall this past week is causing crops to rapidly advance through developmental stages, weekly crop report says
  • 36% of fall cereals, 29% of spring cereals, 25% of oilseeds, 30% of pulse crops are ahead of normal development due to stress
• “Without a significant rainfall, many crops throughout the province will have their yields and quality severely impacted,” report says
  • Cropland topsoil moisture rated at 14% adequate, 41% short, 45% very poor
  • Hay and pasture land rated at 9% adequate, 36% short, 55% very short
• Crop and hay land damage in past week from extremely dry soil conditions, hot temperatures, dry winds, grasshoppers, and severe hail storms