Global Ag News for July 14

 TODAY – ENERGY STOCKS

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.02; Soyoil down 0.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 26 3/4 in SRW, up 22 3/4 in HRW, up 50 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 23 1/2; Soybeans up 24 1/4; Soymeal up $0.09; Soyoil up 2.38.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 37 3/4 in SRW, down 42 1/4 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 48; Soybeans down 45 1/2; Soymeal down $21.90; Soyoil up 0.55.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 11 yuan ; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 70; Palm oil up 10; Corn up 28 — Malasyian Palm is up 52. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 52 ringgit (+1.31%) at 4029

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, south Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday. East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers south Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

The player sheet for 7/13 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 13 were: SRW Wheat down 1,346 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,327, Corn down 2,532, Soybeans down 1,623, Soymeal down 2,851, Soyoil down 1,030.

There were changes in registrations (-5 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 402 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has purchased an estimated 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group in the Philippines purchased about 40,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from the Black Sea region. It was purchased at a little under $290 a tonne c&f for Sept. 15-30 shipment.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: A group of importers in the Philippines is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for up to 200,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat. Prices were regarded as too high.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 118,911 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation has issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat for shipment in August and September. The deadline for price offers is July 14.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase about 55,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States. The deadline for price offers is July 16.
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase around 7,600 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms for arrival between Aug. 20 and Oct. 20. Deadline for price offers is July 21.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 23, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on July 14.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 9 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.059m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 21.391m bbl vs 21.149m a week ago

NOPA June U.S. soy crush seen at 159.483 million bushels -survey

U.S. soybean crushings likely dropped in June to the lowest in four months amid thinning soy supplies and scattered processor downtime, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Thursday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 159.483 million bushels of soybeans in June, according to the average of estimates from 12 analysts.

If realized, the June crush would be down 2.5% from the 163.521 million bushels processed in May and down 4.7% from June 2020, when crushers processed 167.263 million bushels.

Estimates for the June 2021 crush ranged from 155.500 million to 163.000 million bushels, with a median of 159.200 million bushels.

More Heat and Dry Conditions Expected to Hurt Manitoba Crops

Grain and oilseed crops will be further affected by heat and lack of moisture this week, Manitoba’s provincial government says.

• Many crops are maturing faster than normal with grain and pods filling in early, province says in weekly crop report published Tuesday
  • Cereals, canola and peas will be affected by hot and dry weather
• Rural municipality of Armstrong declared a state of agricultural disaster due to persistent growing challenges such as insects and lack of rainfall
  • Rural municipality of St. Laurent declared state of disaster in previous week
• Topsoil moisture continues to decline due to dry conditions and high temperatures
  • Crop, hay and pasture conditions deteriorate

Dry River Turns Tables on South America Soy Meal Premiums

A key crop waterway in Argentina, the biggest exporter of soy meal, is the driest since 1944, driving buyers to its neighbor and rival Brazil. Vessels are sailing out of the shallow Parana River with lighter loads, which increases shipping costs. As a result, the spread between premiums paid for August shipments has expanded to the widest on record, with importers pricing Argentine meal about 22 dollars lower than Brazilian-sourced purchases.

Brazil Corn Exports for 2020-21 likely to fall sharply on latest output cut

• Rabobank estimates 2020-21 Brazil corn exports at 21 mil mt, down 12 mil mt
• Brazil’s 2nd corn crop harvest at 20.9% compared to 36.1% same time last year

Brazil’s corn exports are likely to fall sharply in the 2020-21 marketing year, which begins March 2021 and ends in February 2022, due to further cut in production estimates.

Brazil, the second-largest corn exporter in the world, suffered significant yield losses this season due to severe drought during most of the growing phase and was further affected by frost that hit corn crops in the southern part of the country towards the end of June.

Brazil’s 2020-21 corn production forecast was cut to 93.38 million mt from 96.39 million mt projected in June, the country’s national agricultural agency CONAB said in its monthly survey on July 8. Brazil produced a record 102.515 million mt of corn in 2019-20 (February 2020-January 2021). However, local reports from commodity consultancies peg Brazil’s corn production closer to 90 million mt.

Wheat Yields in Russia Running Below Last Year’s Level: Ministry

Russian farmers harvested 2.46m hectares of wheat as of July 13, versus about 5.43m hectares at the same time last year, according to data from the Agriculture Ministry’s analytical center. The average wheat yield is 3.28 tons/hectare compared with 3.36 tons/hectare last year

India’s veg oil imports drop 20% in June

India’s imports of vegetable oils fell by 20% month-on-month in June to 996,014 tonne due to higher stocks at its ports, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEAI), a national trade body, said on Tuesday.

Palm oil imports, which account for over 60% of the country’s vegetable oil purchases, fell 23.6% to 587,467 tonne last month, the data showed. Soya oil purchases fell by 23% to 206,262 tonne while sunflower oil imports in June were steady at 175,702 tonne compared to 175,759 tonne in May, it added.

Bumper French Wheat Harvest Will Fill Silos to Eight-Year High

• Soft-wheat stockpiles at end of 2021-22 to expand by 39%
• French inventories will rise even with a surge in exports

France’s bumper wheat crop is set to leave its silos saddled with the most grain in at least eight seasons, a stark reversal from last year’s tight supplies in the European Union’s top grower.

After a cool and rainy spring, the country’s soft-wheat harvest is poised to rebound by 27% from last year, when droughts and flooding hurt production, the agriculture ministry said this week. The increased supply will also revive exports in the season that just started, with sales outside the EU forecast to surge 40% to a two-year high, crops office FranceAgriMer said Tuesday.

Even with the extra overseas demand, stockpiles will still total 3.68 million tons, the most since at least 2013-14, FranceAgriMer said. Big harvests in key export rivals in the Black Sea region and the rest of Europe will also heighten export competition. And while the French surplus could help ease shortages from North America — where dryness is plaguing crops — its grain typically has lower protein than the spring-wheat varieties suffering most there.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports at 199k Tons at Start of 2021-22 Season

Shipments during the season that began July 1 came to 199,274 tons as of July 11, compared with 485,459 tons in the same period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Top destinations were South Korea (46k tons) and Algeria (30k tons)
• EU barley exports total 65,896 tons, versus 470,728 tons a year earlier
• Corn imports total 278,209 tons, versus 419,378 tons a year earlier

Argentine farmers sell 24.5 mln T of 2020/21 soybeans – ag ministry

Argentine farmers have sold 24.5 million tonnes of soybeans grown in the 2020/21 season, after transactions were registered over the last week for 831,300 tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday in a report with data updated through July 7.

The rhythm of Argentine soybean sales is slower than the previous year’s, when by this point in the season 26.9 million tonnes of the oilseed had been sold, according to official data.

Argentina’s 2020/21 soybean harvest came in at an estimated 43.5 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, versus 49 million tonnes in the 2019/20 crop year.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soymeal livestock feed. The country needs export dollars to replenish central bank foreign currency reserves strained by a three-year recession exacerbated by high inflation and the coronavirus pandemic.

Argentine growers are also harvesting 2020/21 corn. The ministry said in the report that sales of 32.7 million tonnes of this season’s corn crop have been registered so far, 2.3 million tonnes more than had been done at this point last season.

Dry River Turns Tables on South America Soy Meal Premiums

A key crop waterway in Argentina, the biggest exporter of soy meal, is the driest since 1944, driving buyers to its neighbor and rival Brazil. Vessels are sailing out of the shallow Parana River with lighter loads, which increases shipping costs. As a result, the spread between premiums paid for August shipments has expanded to the widest on record, with importers pricing Argentine meal about 22 dollars lower than Brazilian-sourced purchases.

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Stockpile Falls 7.7% M/m in May: Gapki

Stockpile declined to 2.88 million tons in May from 3.12 million tons in the previous month, Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki said in an emailed statement on Wednesday.

• Exports at 2.95m tons in May vs. 2.64m tons in April
• Production at 4.35m tons in May vs. 4.1m tons in April
• Domestic consumption at 1.65 in May vs. 1.6m tons in April

Ukraine grain exports at 700,000 T so far in 2021/22

Ukraine has exported 700,000 tonnes of grain so far in the 2021/22 July-June season, almost the same volume as it sold abroad in the same period in 2020/21, agriculture ministry data showed on Wednesday.

The exported volume included 223,000 tonnes of wheat, 95,000 tonnes of barley and 373,000 tonnes of corn, the data showed. The barley and wheat are likely from the new 2021 harvest.

Ukraine, which has started the 2021 grain harvest, plans to thresh around 76 million tonnes of grain in 2021 compared to 65 million tonnes in 2020.

The country exported 44.6 million tonnes of grain in the 2020/21 season. That included 23 million tonnes of corn, 16.6 million tonnes of wheat and 4.2 million tonnes of barley.

The government expects grain exports could rise to 56 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season and the volume could include 20.7 million tonnes of wheat, 30.7 million tonnes of corn and 4.1 million tonnes of barley.

China sees increase in summer grain output

China reaped a bumper summer harvest in 2021, with a 2.1-percent increase in total output, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday. Summer grain production totaled 145.8 million tonnes, an increase of 2.97 million tonnes from last year, the NBS said.

The output of wheat harvested this summer totaled 134.3 million tonnes, up 2 percent from that in 2020. The planting area of summer grain reversed from a declining trend to witness growth, while per unit yield also increased, according to the NBS.

Brazil raises mandatory biodiesel blend to 12%, below expectations

The Brazilian government raised the mandatory blend of biodiesel into diesel to 12% from 10%, below this year’s target of 13% in a bid to rein in fuel inflation amid high soybean prices.

About 70% of Brazil’s biodiesel is produced from soy oil, prices of which have risen owing to strong demand and tight supply of soybeans.

Germany Farmers Fear Long, Difficult Harvest Due to Rains: DRV

Grains harvest in the country kicked off about 10 days ago with collection of winter-barley crops, but has been stalled repeatedly by heavy rainfall, agricultural cooperatives group DRV said Wednesday in an emailed statement.