Global Ag News for Aug 4th

TODAY —  EIA WEEKLY ENERGY REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.64.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 23 1/2 in SRW, up 35 1/4 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 24 1/2; Soymeal down $0.42; Soyoil down 0.60.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 54 yuan ; Soymeal down 32; Soyoil up 56; Palm oil up 138; Corn down 1 — Malasyian Palm is up 157. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 157 ringgit (+3.79%) at 4300 advancing for a second day on concerns about weaker production in second-biggest grower Malaysia and expectations of a pickup in purchases by India.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, above normal north and below normal south Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Thursday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

The player sheet for 8/3 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 3 were: SRW Wheat up 4,797 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,725, Corn down 1,059, Soybeans down 2,126, Soymeal up 3,634, Soyoil up 2,917.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 55,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to expected to be sourced from South Africa in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 48,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Aug. 6.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 119,435 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER CANCELED: Egypt’s state commodities purchasing agency, GASC, cancelled an international tender to buy and import 30,000 tonnes of soyoil and 10,000 tonnes of sunflower oil with no purchases made. GASC gave no further details
• WHEAT TENDER CANCELED: The Ethiopian government is believed to have cancelled a tender to buy 400,000 tonnes wheat which closed on July 19

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 30 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.007m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.655m bbl vs 22.733m a week ago

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 35% in Season Through Aug. 1

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 amounted to 963k tons as of Aug. 1, versus 1.48m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: The report is missing Italian figures for the past four weeks and will be updated when the data is available, it says
• NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations were South Korea (173k tons), U.K. (110k tons) and Algeria (89k tons)
• EU barley exports total 786k tons, compared with 1.13m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports total 1.09m tons, against 1.04m tons a year earlier

North Korea releases wartime rice reserves amid food crisis

North Korea has released military rice reserves to tackle an ongoing food crisis in the country, South Korea’s spy agency said on Tuesday, as a heat wave and drought have hit food supplies.

Seoul’s National Intelligence Service told a closed-door parliamentary committee meeting that North Korea is supplying rice reserved for wartime uses to citizens left with little food, other labourers and rural state agencies, Ha Tae-Keung, one of the lawmakers who attended the session, told AP. Another lawmaker, Kim Byung-kee, quoted the NIS as saying that North Korea is running out of its grain stockpiles.

Barchart Raises U.S. Crop Forecasts on Higher Yield; Cuts Canadian Wheat Projections

• U.S. Corn Production – Forecast at 15.0B bu with a yield of 180.3 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s 15.1B bu of production and 179.5 bu/ac yield.
• U.S. Soybean Production – Forecast at 4.4B bu with a yield of 51.0 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s 4.4B bu of production and 50.8 bu/ac yield.
• U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield – Forecast at 45.5 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s yield forecast of 53.6 bu/ac (includes all winter wheat varieties).
• Canadian Spring Wheat Production – Forecast at 816.0M bu with a yield of 50.6 bu/ac. This compares to the AAFC’s 920.8M bu of production and 53.5 bu/ac yield (includes spring wheat and winter wheat, excludes durum wheat).
• Canadian Soybean Production – Forecast at 225.2M bu with a yield of 42.6 bu/ac. This compares to the AAFC’s 228.9M bu of production and 42.8 bu/ac yield.

Brazil corn exports to fall sharply in August, projections show

Brazilian corn exports are expected to plunge in August to around 3 million tonnes, according to ship line-up data from maritime agency Cargonave and projections by grain exporters association Anec on Tuesday.

Shipping schedules showed corn exports at 6.7 million tonnes in August of 2020, data from Cargonave showed. Anec said corn shipments this August would be at best only as high as 4 million tonnes amid severe crop failure.

In the first six months of 2021, Brazil sold most of its exported corn to Egypt, with Vietnam, Taiwan and Iran also key destinations, Anec data showed.

Egypt’s Sisi calls for first bread price rise in decades

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said it was time to increase the price of the country’s subsidized bread, revisiting the issue for the first time since 1977 when then president Anwar Sadat reversed a price rise in the face of riots.

Sisi on Tuesday did not specify the amount of any potential increase, but any change to the food support system in the world’s largest wheat importer would be highly sensitive. Bread was the first word in the signature slogan chanted in the 2011 uprising that unseated former president Hosni Mubarak.

Bread is currently sold at 0.05 Egyptian pounds ($0.0032) per loaf to more than 60 million Egyptians, who are allocated five loaves a day under a sprawling subsidy program that also includes the likes of pasta and rice, and costs billions of dollars.

Manitoba Expects Below-Normal Spring Wheat Yields Amid Drought

Severe-to-exceptional drought conditions plague the key Canadian agricultural region, Manitoba government says in weekly report.

• Producers with extra feed are encouraged to list available supplies for sale, according to report
• Below-normal yields for spring wheat and peas are anticipated in Central and Interlake regions
• 50% of spring wheat crops in the province’s Southwest region are rated good to excellent, with 60% in the Northwest, 45% in Central, 50% in Eastern and 5% in Interlake
• 30% of canola is good to excellent in the Southwest, 50% in Northwest, 45% in Central, 10% in Eastern and 5% in Interlake

France Lowers Wheat Crop Estimate, Cites Quality Worry: Ministry

The country’s 2021 soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 36.7m tons, down from a July estimate for 37.1m tons, France’s agriculture ministry said Wednesday in a report.

• That would still leave production 26% above last year
• “If the quantities return to a good level, concerns are focused on the quality of the grains, affected by high humidity”
• Soft-wheat yields estimated at 7.42 tons/hectare, versus 7.51 tons/hectare last month
• Durum-wheat harvest is seen at 1.59m tons, versus 1.62m tons
• Barley harvest is seen at 11.7m tons, versus 11.3m tons
• Rapeseed harvest is raised to 3.22m tons, versus 3m tons
  • That still leaves production slightly below last year
• Corn production seen at 13.2m tons, the ministry says, in its first outlook for the 2021 harvest
  • That’s 3.1% below last year and in line with the five-year average

Drought hits SW China’s Guizhou, heatwaves continue

A total of 26 counties and cities in southwest China’s Guizhou Province have recently been hit by drought due to heatwaves, local authorities said.

The drought has affected the growth of rice, corn, and sorghum, among other crops, the provincial department of agriculture and rural affairs said Tuesday.

By noon Tuesday, the provincial meteorological bureau had issued high-temperature alerts for 15 counties and cities, with 14 orange alerts and one yellow.

Yanhe County of Guizhou registered a temperature of 40.5 degrees Celsius at 2 p.m. on Monday, topping the whole country simultaneously, said data from the National Meteorological Center.

China has a four-tier, color-coded weather warning system, with red representing the most severe, followed by orange, yellow, and blue.

CVR pauses renewable diesel plans as feedstock prices surge

Carl Icahn’s CVR Energy CVI.N is pausing plans to produce around 7,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel at its Wynnewood, Oklahoma, refinery due to high feedstock prices, the company said Tuesday.

Several U.S. refineries are ramping up operations to produce more green fuels from vegetable oil and animal fats as they try to gain a foothold in the energy transition to lower-emitting fuels. Their demand for that feedstock has boosted prices sharply, threatening the future of some of these plans.

Big Grain Importers Back Off From Buying After Price Surge

Major crop buyers across Africa and Asia are pulling back from purchases, highlighting how the rally across grain and oilseed prices is cutting into demand.

Top wheat importer Egypt booked a lone grain cargo at a tender on Monday, its smallest volume in nearly a year, and has now scrapped a vegetable oils tender. Turkey canceled a tender seeking 515,000 tons of feed barley, a rare move. And Pakistan bought less than half the wheat it sought in a tender late last week.

The moves come as supply outlooks tighten across major wheat producers, with heat, drought and floods combining to chip away at production estimates. That’s boosting global prices at a time of year when importers typically count on a flurry of freshly harvested grain to help keep purchases affordable. Vegetable oil prices are also elevated as biodiesel demand climbs.

Vietnam Ministry Proposes Stockpiling Rice Amid Price Fall

Vietnam’s agriculture ministry proposes the government stockpile an unspecified amount of rice as paddy price is falling, which may discourage farmers from starting a new autumn-winter crop, the government website reports, citing information from the ministry during a Tuesday online meeting.

• Paddy rice price has fallen by 300-500 dong a kg from a year ago: report cited the ministry’s plant production department during the same meeting
• Department head Nguyen Nhu Cuong said some farmers have hesitated planting for the autumn-winter crop amid the price fall; he is concerned about a lack of timely policy to stimulate the summer-autumn rice market, which may affect year’s rice output: post