Global Ag News for Aug 27th

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, unchanged in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 10 3/4; Soymeal down $0.16; Soyoil down 1.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, up 12 1/2 in HRW, up 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/4; Soybeans up 24 3/4; Soymeal down $0.06; Soyoil up 2.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 26 1/4 in SRW, up 44 in HRW, up 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 33 3/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil down 4.37.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 2 yuan ; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil down 70; Palm oil down 80; Corn down 13. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 60 ringgit (-1.37%) at 4332 after two days of gains amid lower soybean oil prices and expectations that inventories in Malaysia are poised to climb.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for Aug. 26 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, unchanged in corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 26 were: SRW Wheat up 187 contracts, HRW Wheat up 735, Corn down 11,616, Soybeans down 4,764, Soymeal down 4,203, Soyoil down 3,456.

There were changes in registrations (-49 Soyoil, -4 Soymeal). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 249 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 133,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and another 132,150 tonnes to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
• CORN SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 100,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Colombia for 2021/22 delivery.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s largest animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought around 135,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender that closed on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 81,853 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
• WHEAT AND BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency purchased soft wheat and animal feed barley in an international tender which closed on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: A government agency in Pakistan bought about 160,000 tonnes of milling wheat from optional origins in an international for up to 400,000 tonnes which closed on Monday
• FEED WHEAT TENDER PASSED: A group of importers in the Philippines was believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for up to 168,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat which closed on Thursday
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer in the Philippines is tendering to purchase an estimated 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 48,875 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: State-run Trading Corp. of Pakistan is seeking to import 550k tons of wheat.

U.S. Sold 1.83M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 691K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Aug. 19.

• Soybean sales fell to 1,825k tons vs 2,210k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 116k tons vs 307k in previous week
• Corn sales fell to 691k tons vs 727k in previous week

U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

• China bought 1.03m tons of the 1.83m tons of soybeans sold in the week
• Mexico was the top buyer of corn and Peru led in wheat
• Figures are for total old and new crop sales, and in thousands of metric tons:

U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

• Mexico bought 14.3k tons of the 24.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases
• Figures are in thousands of metric tons:

IGC Cuts Global Grain Stockpile Outlook Again on Wheat, Barley

Global grain stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now estimated at 589m tons as wheat and barley crops in Canada, Russia and the U.S. are expected to be smaller than previously forecast, the International Grains Council said in an emailed report.

• That’s down from a July estimate of 594m tons and would be the lowest in seven years
• World wheat output is forecast at 782m tons, down from a previous outlook of 788m tons
• Estimates for corn production and stockpiles were unchanged
• Total grains consumption estimate was cut by 7m tons to 2.29b tons, “mostly linked to lower figures for feeding of wheat and barley amid a tighter supply outlook,” the IGC said
• Soybean production outlook was trimmed by 2m tons to 380m tons

White House Begins Formal Review of EPA’s Biofuel Quota Plan

• The EPA says it sent a draft plan for setting biofuel-blending quotas to the White House for scrutiny
• “The proposal aims to get the RFS program back on track while addressing challenges stemming from decisions made under the prior administration,” the agency says in emailed statement
• NOTE: President Joe Biden has been critical of the prior administration’s wider approval of exemptions waiving small refineries from the Renewable Fuel Standard requirements
• The move marks the start of a formal interagency review process for how much renewable fuel such as corn-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel must be mixed into gasoline and diesel
• Proposal could be released by the EPA within weeks
• Biofuel credits for ethanol and biomass-based diesel — used to track compliance with the federal blending law — rose on Thursday

Heavy Rains In Saskatchewan To Further Hurt Crops After Drought

Large amounts of precipitation in the Canadian Prairie province combined with cool temperatures will downgrade crops that are still in the field, Saskatchewan government says Thursday.

Planalytics Raises U.S. Soybean Forecast to 50.60 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 50.20 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Iowa 58.10 vs 57.00
  • Illinois 61.80 vs 60.30
  • Indiana 59.00 vs 57.50

Planalytics Raises U.S. Corn Forecast to 176.30 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 176.00 bu/acre, and has risen for a sixth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

• Iowa 195.90 vs 195.10
• Illinois 206.30 vs 201.20
• Indiana 191.60 vs 188.40

Planalytics Lowers U.S. Spring Wheat Forecast to 33.00 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is down from previous forecast of 33.50 bu/acre, and has fallen for a sixth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

• North Dakota 31.10 vs 30.80
• Minnesota 43.40 vs 43.20
• Montana 25.10 vs 26.20

EU Lowers 2021-22 Soft-Wheat and Corn Harvest Estimates

The EU’s soft-wheat harvest is estimated at 127.2m tons, down from a July estimate of 127.7m tons, the European Commission said in a report on its website.

Brazil 2021-22 Soybean Output May Grow to 141.26m Tons: Conab

That would represent a record output and a 3.9% increase over the volume produced in 2020-21 since producer’s profitability with the crop will still be high, said Conab’s intelligence and economic analysis manager Fernando Motta at a webconference.

• Soybean planted area may increase 3.6% y/y to 39.91m hectares
  • Exports are expected to increase to 87.58m tons in 2022 versus 83.42m in 2021
  • Domestic crushing is expected to grow to 51.47m tons in 2022 versus 46.50m in 2021 due to increased blending of biodiesel in diesel
• Corn production is expected to increase by 33.8% y/y to 115.9m tons in 2021-22
  • Planted area +3% y/y to 20.6m hectares
  • Second corn crop expected to increase 45% to 87.3m tons
  • Final corn inventories are expected to grow to 9.9m tons versus 5.1m in 2021-21
  • Domestic corn consumption may grow to 73.7m tons versus 70.9m tons in 2020-21
• Cotton planted area is expected to increase 13.4% in 2021-22 to 1.548m hectares
  • Area increase is due to attractive prices for producers, high volume of forward sales
  • Area just doesn’t increase more as corn profitability has been more attractive, spurring farmers to plant more the grain
  • Cotton exports are expected to be 2m tons in 2022 versus 2.1m in 2021

Russian Wheat Export Tax Increases to $39.40/Ton for Next Week

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $39.40/ton next week from the current $31.70/ton, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.

Belarus Government Imposes 6-Month Ban on Grain Exports

Government prohibits exports of wheat, rye, barley, corn and some other cereals outside borders of Eurasian Economic Union, according to document text published on National Legal Internet Portal.

• Ban effective from Aug. 27
• Document doesn’t explain reasons for imposing the ban
• Ban won’t apply for exports of humanitarian aid approved by Belarus or international transit, including from other EEU countries

 

Indonesia to Raise CPO Export Tax for Sept., Keep Levy Unchanged

Govt will increase the tax for palm oil exports to $166 a ton in September from $93 in August, in line with higher reference price, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, said in a text message on Friday.

• Reference price for Sept. will be set at $1,185.26/ton versus July’s $1,094.15/ton
• Indonesia will keep the additional levy for CPO exports unchanged at $175/ton

Poor Monsoon May Hurt India Oilseed and Cotton Output, NCML Says

Production of oilseeds and cotton in India will probably drop this year as deficient monsoon rains in main growing areas have hit plantings, according to Siraj Chaudhry, managing director and chief executive officer of National Commodities Management Services Ltd.

“We started this monsoon season with high hopes and a lot of optimism,” Chaudhary said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin and Rishaad Salamat, Friday. The country received good rainfall in June, the start of the four-month rainy period, but there have been disappointments after that, he said.

Other main points from the interview:

• No significant impact seen on overall food grain production.
• India has enough stockpiles of rice and wheat; the government can manage food inflation.
• The government is aware of the risk of higher food prices. It has taken some measures, such as reducing duties on pulses and edible oils and allowing import soybean meal for the poultry industry.
• “Let’s see how much they impact or they actually help to solve the problem of food inflation, but the government has certainly made the moves.”

French Soft-Wheat Harvest Is Almost Complete: AgriMer

Harvesting of France’s soft-wheat crop was 96% complete as of Aug. 23, up from 91% a week earlier, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• NOTE: Farm adviser Agritel this week said the nation’s has been disappointing both in quantity and quality
• Unfavorable summer weather hurt grain filling, degrading the quality

Kazakhstan wheat redirected away from Afghanistan

With Afghanistan gripped by uncertainty and unrest, leading grain producer Kazakhstan has begun exploring new markets for its wheat and flour.

The impasse, precipitated by US moves to cut off the Taliban’s access to Afghan central bank reserves, is portending a double blow: Afghan people are being pushed further into a daily worsening humanitarian catastrophe, and Kazakhstan has lost its main buyer for the commodity.

Two-thirds of the flour exported by Kazakhstan in 2020 was bought by Afghanistan, which also bought wheat from Kazakhstan. Another of Afghanistan’s major flour suppliers was Uzbekistan, which in turn used Kazakh grain for production.

The Grain Union of Kazakhstan, a lobby group, told Eurasianet this week that the loss of the Afghan market means 3 million tonnes of wheat are currently in limbo.

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Aug. 26: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimate unchanged at 50.5m tons
• Corn harvest 100% complete

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 26% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Aug. 21 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 62% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 10% w/w