Global Ag News for Aug 18th

TODAY – EIA WEEKLY ENERGY REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $0.14; Soyoil down 0.67.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 31 1/2 in SRW, down 31 3/4 in HRW, down 22 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 9 1/4; Soymeal up $0.11; Soyoil down 1.83.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 29 3/4 in SRW, up 39 in HRW, up 16 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 18 1/2; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal up $7.60; Soyoil down 1.59.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 13 yuan ; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil down 100; Palm oil down 184; Corn down 16 — Malasyian Palm is down 117. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 117 ringgit (-2.65%) at 4291 with weakness in other vegetable oils, a slump in Malaysian shipments and the country’s move to increase the reference price to calculate export taxes hurting sentiment.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. East: Isolated showers east through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Aug. 17 had funds: net sellers of 11,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 17 were: SRW Wheat down 6,952 contracts, HRW Wheat down 235, Corn down 4,194, Soybeans up 1,811, Soymeal down 562, Soyoil down 3,020.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 79 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and 132,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, both for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s largest animal feedmaker, Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI), is believed to have purchased around 138,000 tonnes of feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, has started purchasing milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set a tender on Tuesday to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Oct. 5-15, with payment using 180-day letters of credit.
• VEGOIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Tuesday it was seeking soyoil and sunflower oil in an international purchasing tender for arrival Oct 5-25. The deadline for offers is Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 27, via a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 18.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase up to 280,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat.
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency, ONICL, has issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 24.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 143,765 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.

China July Agricultural Imports

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Corn Imports 2.86M Tons, +213.7% Y/y
  • YTD corn imports rose 297.5% y/y to 18.16m tons
• July wheat imports 880,000 tons, -5.2% y/y
  • YTD wheat imports rose 45.9% y/y to 6.25m tons
• July cotton imports 140,000 tons, -3% y/y
  • YTD cotton imports rose 61.4% y/y to 1.69m tons
• July edible palm oil imports 350,000 tons, +10.7% y/y
  • YTD edible palm oil imports rose 15% y/y to 2.45m tons
• July barley imports 770,000 tons, +87.1% y/y
  • YTD barley imports rose 124.8% y/y to 6.42m tons
• July sorghum imports 1.11m tons, +114.2% y/y
  • YTD sorghum imports rose 157% y/y to 5.9m tons
• July pork imports 350,000 tons, -18.6% y/y
  • YTD pork imports rose 3.9% y/y to 2.66m tons
• July beef imports 190,000 tons, -7.3% y/y
  • YTD beef imports rose 10.1% y/y to 1.32m tons

CROP TOUR: Indiana Corn Yield Could Beat 2020 Averages

Corn-yield averages in Indiana looked to be above estimated averages in 2020, according to Mike Berdo, a scout on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Corn is rapidly maturing amid dry weather, and stalk quality is good: Berdo
• Crop is seeing “heavy disease pressure”
• Yields in north-central Indiana avg ~193.6 bu/acre after nine stops through midday
• Last year, statewide yield avg was ~179.84 bu, tour data shows
• 4-day tour is on its 2nd day

SOYBEANS

• Soybeans are looking taller and better as the tour moves west from Ohio toward Iowa: Berdo
• Soybeans avg ~1116.57 pods in 3-foot-by-3-foot square
• Last year, Indiana avg was ~1281.12 pods
• 3-yr avg for Indiana is ~1172.31 pods
• NOTE: Tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
• NOTE: The eastern leg of the tour will make corn-yield and soy-pod projections for the entire state of Indiana later on Tuesday

CROP TOUR: Indiana Corn Yield Seen at All-Time High This Season

Indiana corn yield average is estimated at 193.48 bu/acre, a record for the state if realized, according to U.S. eastern leg scouts on the second day of Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour.

• Forecast is slightly below the USDA’s estimate of 194 bu/acre; record for the state is 189 bu/acre reached in 2018
  • Yield last year was 187 bu/acre
• “The corn crop is big, it’s beastly, it’s bold,” Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer newsletter and leader of the eastern half of the tour
  • Still, there is dryness in the central part of state and rains are needed for the last third of the growing season, he told tour participants Tuesday evening
• Indiana soybeans are seen averaging ~1,239.72 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 195 samples; the three-year average tour estimate for Indiana is 1,172.31: tour data

CROP TOUR: Nebraska Corn, Soy Yields Limited by Heat and Drought

Searing heat in June hit yield potential for corn and soybeans in eastern Nebraska while limited rains have also impeded crops, according to scouts on the second day of the four-day Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Hot temperatures and heavy winds in June “wilted” advancing plants and took the high end off of corn yields, even in fields with irrigation pivots that provide water, Randy Uhrmacher, a Nebraska farmer and crop scout, said Tuesday
• “That week of hot and windy weather, we probably lost a few kernel rows”
• Corn yield potential averaged 179.1 bu/acre after seven tops in Nebraska counties of Seward, Saline, Gage and Lancaster, with a low of 118 bu in Gage and high of 237.2 in Seward
• That’s on par with the 2020 crop tour average of 179.9 bu for this part of Nebraska and above the three-year average of 175.8

SOYBEANS

• Soybean pod counts averaged 1,181 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, with a low of 672 pods in Gage and a high of 1,881 in Saline
• The average is below 1,375 pods on the tour last year and the three-year average of 1,286 pods
• “Soybeans are hanging in there,” Uhrmacher says
• There’s a chance for rains here Thursday
• “If we could get a widespread rain, the Nebraska bean crop could grow by 5 bushels”
• NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
• NOTE: The western leg of the tour will make corn yield and soy pod count projections for the entire state of Nebraska later on Tuesday

CROP TOUR: Nebraska Corn Yields Up 4.1%, Soy Pods Down 5.5%

Corn yields in Nebraska avg 182.4 bu/acre, according to 342 samples taken Tuesday by participants on Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Compares with 2020 tour avg of 175.2 bu/acre; three-year avg of 175.6
• Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg 1,226.4 pods, according to 330 samples
  • That’s down from 1,297.9 pods last year; 1,269.3 three-year avg
  • NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t project soybean yields
• About half of the samples of each crop were from irrigated fields, which typically have better yields than non-irrigated or “dryland” crops
• NOTE: USDA on Aug. 12 forecast Nebraska corn yields at 186 bu/acre and soybean yields at 60 bu/acre

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: U.S. Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 7.1%

July placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.76m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• That would be the third straight y/y decline after rising by 27.2% in April
• Feedlot herd as of Aug. 1 seen falling by 1.8% y/y to 11.08m head
• Marketings seen falling 3.6% y/y

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 13 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly higher than last week at 987k b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.172m bbl vs 22.276m a week ago

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 6.249 mln T in August – Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.249 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 6.092 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.527 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 3.987 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Argentine farmers have sold 27.3 million tonnes of 2020/21 soybeans – gov’t

Argentine growers have sold 27.3 million tonnes of soybeans from the recently harvested 2020/21 crop year, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday in a report with data updated through Aug. 11.

The rhythm of sales of one of Argentina’s main crops was behind that of the previous season, when by this point some 29.4 million tonne of the oilseed had been sold, the ministry said.

The 2020/21 soy harvest in Argentina ended in June at 43.5 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, down from 49 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season. Soy is a major driver of export dollars needed to refresh central bank foreign currency reserves strained by a three-year recession exacerbated in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ministry said sales of 2020/21 corn had reached 37.2 million tonnes, about 3 million tonnes more than sales registered at this time last year. The exchange says about 95% of the 48 million tonnes of corn expected to be harvested this season has been brought in so far.

Developing La Nina Threatens New Argentina Soy Season: Exchange

The Pacific Ocean is expected to cool from October, leading to the development of a weak La Nina climate pattern, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weather report.

• Separately, from October rains are seen falling at the sources of the Parana and Paraguay rivers, with the draft at key river ports set to start deepening by the end of the year and keep on recovering through March
• However, water levels may ebb again after that, with shallowness striking back in the southern hemisphere fall and winter (April to September 2022)

NOTES:

• In Argentina, La Nina brings dryness that curbs crop yields
• Argentine soybeans are planted from late October and start being harvested in March

Manitoba Canola Yields Seen at 10-Year Lows as Harvest Speeds Up

Canola crops in the key Canadian growing region are facing the poorest growing conditions in at least the past decade, Manitoba government says Tuesday.

• Environmental and insect stress hurt canola crops, weekly crop report says
• Manitoba harvest is 21% complete, well ahead of the four-year average of 14% for the third week of August
  • 44% of crops are rated good, 1 percentage point lower than a week ago
  • Nearly 40% of spring wheat harvest is complete, with barley and oats slightly ahead of this
• 46% of spring wheat crops are rated good to excellent, with barley at 41%, canola at 35%
• Soil moisture from last week’s rain was immediately used up by extreme heat the last few days, though last week’s cooler conditions helped some crops recover slightly
• Farmers continue to make green feed from drought-affected grain crops

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Reserves Jumps 45% M/m in June: Gapki

Stockpile rose to 4.15m tons in June, from 2.85m tons in the previous month, Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, said an emailed statement on Wednesday.

• Exports at 2.03m tons in June vs. 2.95m tons in May
• Production at 4.91m tons in June vs. 4.35m tons in May
• Domestic consumption at 1.58m tons in June vs. 1.68m tons in May

EU 2021/22 soft wheat exports at 2.33 mln tonnes by Aug. 15

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 2.33 million tonnes by Aug. 15, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. That was up from 2.22 million tonnes by the same week in 2020/21, the data showed.

EU 2021/22 barley exports had reached 1.68 million tonnes, against 1.33 million a year ago, while EU maize imports were at 1.51 million tonnes, against 1.82 million.

This season’s figures were not complete, however, as data from Italy was missing for past weeks, the Commission said. Since Jan. 1, the Commission’s data has covered the EU’s 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain.

EU 2021/22 soybean imports at 1.47 mln T by Aug. 15, rapeseed 427,277 T

European Union soybean imports in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 1.47 million tonnes by Aug. 15, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

That compared with 2.03 million tonnes by the same week in the previous 2020/21 season, the data showed. EU rapeseed imports in 2021/22 had reached 427,277 tonnes, compared with 447,212 tonnes a year earlier.

Soymeal imports so far in 2021/22 totalled 1.59 million tonnes against 2.45 million a year ago, while palm oil imports stood at 473,682 tonnes versus 865,803 tonnes. Since Jan. 1, the European Commission’s data has covered the EU’s 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain.

Malaysia Keeps September Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 8%

Gazetted price for crude palm oil at 4,255.52 ringgit per ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 8%, according to a statement from the Customs Department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Tax has been kept at 8% since January, following a government exemption between July and December of 2020
• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit per ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit per ton

Kazakhstan sees 2021 grain crop down 24% due to drought

Kazakhstan expects its 2021 grain crop to fall by 24% to 15.3 million tonnes after drought hit main producing regions of the Central Asian nation, acting Agriculture Minister Yerbol Karashokeyev told a government meeting on Wednesday.

Kazakhstan, the top grain producer in Central Asia, has been hit by dry and hot weather in summer, but high stocks and imports from Russia are expected to support its grain supplies in the 2021/22 season, which started on July 1.

Ukraine Urges Algeria to Ease Wheat-Tender Terms to Boost Trade

The Ukrainian Grain Association held an online meeting with Algerian government officials to discuss ways to expand grain trade, the association said in a statement.

• Ukraine can boost its exports to Algeria if the nation eases its tender requirements for Black Sea grain closer to generally accepted market standards
• NOTE: Ukraine currently only exports small volumes of wheat to Algeria, with just over 200,000 tons shipped in the 2020-21 season
• Algeria’s officials said they are ready to discuss potential changes to requirements for Black Sea supplies, and to talk with Ukrainian exporters and Algerian importers