Global Ag News 9.18

TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 4; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 11;  Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil up 50 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 16 cents; HRW up 20; HRS up 11; Corn is up 8 cents; Soybeans up 44; Soymeal up $14.00, and; Soyoil up 165 points. Crushing margins are up 4 cents at $0.92; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 24 yuan in soybeans, up 29 in Corn, up 43 in Soymeal, up 146 in Soyoil, and up 124 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 86 ringgit at 3,061 (basis December) at midsession following rival vegoils and set for their biggest weekly jump in five years.

U.S. Weather Forecast: A tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized and has recently been upgraded to Tropical Depression Twenty-Two. The system’s center is between the southern tip of Texas and the Yucatan Peninsula. The system’s movement will likely be slow and erratic the next several days as it meanders in the western Gulf of Mexico. Confidence is low of a direct landfall in southern Texas; however, it could get close enough early next week to promote significant bands of rain in the region, especially near the coast. The European Model suggests the system then moves towards the Delta after this.

The most significant precipitation in the second week of the outlook in last evening’s GFS model run was the increase in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region, West Texas, and eastern half of New Mexico Sep. 30 – Oct. 2. The increase was due to a slow-moving upper-level weather disturbance and moisture from a tropical disturbance suggested near Baja California Sur.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 12,000 Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; bought 8,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 33,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 78,000 Corn; net long 228,000 Soybeans; net long 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 96,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 95; Corn up 14,800; Soybeans up 14,500 contracts; Soymeal up 6,300 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,100.

There were changes in registrations (Corn down 55; Soyoil down 8)—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 255; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 300; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,288.

Tender Activity—Tunisia seeks 42,000t optional-origin soft wheat; 50,000t durum—

For the week ended September 10th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 7% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 4% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year.

For the week ended September 10th, U.S. Corn sales are running 136% ahead of a year ago, shipments 32% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 32% increase.

For the week ended September 10th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 189% ahead of a year ago, shipments 102% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 27% increase on the year.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of pandemic assistance to farmers of about $13 billion at a campaign rally in Wisconsin on Thursday night, delivering aid to an important sector in a crucial battleground state;

U.S. lawmakers from both sides of the aisle spoke out on Thursday against the potential use of Department of Agriculture funds to bail out refiners that are denied exemptions from the nation’s biofuel blending laws; Reuters reported on Wednesday that the Trump administration is considering at least $300 million in financial relief to refiners denied waivers from the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, requiring them to blend biofuels like ethanol into their fuel or purchase credits, for the 2019 compliance year; the money could come from funds within the USDA

Saskatchewan crop report: Farmers made significant harvest progress again this week; sixty-two per cent of the crop has been combined, up from 43 per cent last week and well ahead of the five-year (2015-2019) average of 48 per cent; an additional 27 per cent of the crop is swathed or ready to straight-cut; warm and dry weather is needed to continue drying down crops.

The number of wheat fields in northern Argentina that will not be harvested due to drought is growing as wider areas are being affected by lack of moisture, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said; the Pampas grains belt, usually one of the most fertile areas of the world, has suffered from dryness since June; the exchange said about 12% of the 6.5 million hectares (16 million acres) planted in Argentina this year are in the northern part of the country, where the dryness is most acute.

High soy prices are expected to support planting in Argentina this season, but that will be balanced by dry weather, which is driving farmers across the Pampas grains belt to favor late-season corn, which also has attractive prices; Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soymeal livestock feed, used to fatten hogs and cattle from Europe to Southeast Asia; the grain, which is the country’s main cash crop, competes with corn for planting area in Argentina late in the year; corn planting starts in September, soy in October; but by waiting to plant corn in November and December, farmers are betting they can benefit from an increase in showers expected toward the end of the year; dryness has been an issue for Argentine wheat crops over recent months, prompting growers to be risk-averse as they make soy versus corn sowing decisions.

Russia had harvested 115.6 million tons of grain by September 16 in bunker weight, that is, before cleaning and drying, the Agriculture Ministry said; the ministry estimates the final bunker weight at 126.5-127 million tons and has not changed its forecast for net weight; grain was harvested from 82.6% of the area under crop with yield at 29.2 centners/ha; these results significantly exceed the data for September 16 last year, when 99.6 million tons of grain was harvested – 16 million tons less than this year – with a crop yield of 27.9 centners/ha.

Ukraine has exported 10.33 million tons of grain so far in the July 2020-June 2021 season compared to 11.5 million tons at the same point during the previous season, the economy ministry said; the volume is down due to a decline in corn sales, to 612,000 tons from around 1.9 million tons by the same date last season; wheat sales stood at 7 million tons, almost the same volume as a year earlier.

Ukrainian corn exports fell by 4% in the first 11 months of the 2019/20 September-August season to 28.7 million tons, from 29.9 million tons in the same period in 2018/19, analyst APK-Inform said; Ukraine, one of the world’s leading corn producers and exporters, harvested 35.9 million tons in 2019; the consultancy said China has increased it corn imports from Ukraine to 5.4 million tons from 3.8 million tons in 2018/19.

This year’s French grain maize harvest was 4% complete by Sept. 14, compared with 1% a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said.

Growth in demand for Indonesian palm oil this year will be driven by domestic consumption as exports drop amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association; Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, is expected to raise domestic consumption by a slight 1.2 percent year-on-year (yoy) to 15.8 million tons in 2020, Gapki data unveiled on Sept. 1 show; the growth will be entirely driven by the government’s 30 percent palm oil-mixed biodiesel (B30) program, which is expected to offset lower domestic demand for palm-oil based groceries, similar data reveal.

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