Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 23 cents and near 13.76. SMZ is near 396.3. BOZ is near 64.93. CZ is up 5 cents and near 4.98. Overnight high was 5.06. WZ is down 1 cent and near 6.37. Overnight high was 6.46. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 7.57. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 8.14. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. Cattle and hogs were higher on Friday.
Soybean futures are higher. There remains signs of increase China import demand with Dalian soymeal futures sharply higher. Some feel Weekly US soybean crop ratings could be 2-3 pct lower this week after surprising increase last week. US 2 week hot and dry forecast is not the best to finish US soybean crop. Argentina remains dry. N Brazil is also dry. Some feel India Monsoon could be worse since 1902. Soyoil supported by higher Dalian futures and higher US domestic use. Some est US 2022/23 soybean carryout up 10 and 2023/24 down 10 from USDA. 2023/24 drop due to estimates of higher US crush.
Corn futures are higher due to US 2 week hot and dry forecast. Argentina remains dry. N Brazil is also dry. US corn export prices are below Brazil and ethanol margins remain positive. Some est US 2022/23 corn carryout up 50 and 2023/24 up 80 from USDA. Increase due to estimates of lower exports. Pro Farmer crop tour is this week with Midwest states under heat advisory.
Wheat futures are lower. Some est US 2023/24 wheat carryout up 20 from USDA due to lower domestic use. Still some feel World exporters wheat supply could drop and World wheat trade could increase especially if India imports 7-9 mmt. More Ukraine drones hit Russia regions. Ukraine war is ongoing but August Russia wheat were a record 5 mmt.
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