Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down 8 cents and near 13.47. SX is down 7 cents and near 13.41. SMU is near 351.2. BOU is near 63.57. CU is down 4 cents and near 5.42. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.41. WU is up 10 cents and near 7.14. KWU is up 12 cents and near 6.85. MWU is unch and near 9.04.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Most commodities are lower.
Corn and soybean charts negative. Managed fund longs losing money, US weather taking back seat. SU below 13.50 support. BOU below 20 day moving ave. SMU testing 350 support. CU 5.40 support. Wheat supported by lower Canada wheat crop and lower est of Russia wheat crop. KWU new highs. Strong resistance near 14.00 SX, 370 SMU, 64.00 BOU, 5.73 CZ, 7.18 WU, 6.90 KWU and 9.44 MW. Dalian soybean futures lower, soymeal lower, palmoil and soyoil sharply lower. Corn slightly higher.
Weekend Midwest rains were better than expected across SE SD, E NE, W IA, N MO and WC IL. This week should be mostly dry. Trade expected weekly US corn and soybean ratings to drop 2-3 pct.
Strong debate between record US east corn and soybean yield vs lower west. US yield 176? USDA 179.5.
Next rain for parts of ND and MN is Aug 7-8. EU models have rains across N IA na N IL Aug 10.
Corn and soybean market needs more demand, 20/21 US soybean demand down 35 mil by vs USDA.
Analyst est US 21/22 SB carryout 120 vs 155, est corn carryout 970 vs 1,432 and est wheat 580 vs 665. Analyst est US 21/22 corn exports 2,850 mil bu vs USDA 2,500, ethanol 5,350 vs USDA 5.200.
Another week of active China soymeal trade. Brazil soybean export supplies limited. China need beans? Bulls feel prices need to buy 2022 acres; total 315.0 vs 309.4 2021, corn 93.5 vs 92.7, Soya 89.5 vs 87.6. 2022 all wheat acres need to be near 49.3 vs 46.7 2021, cotton 12.0 vs 11.7. Sorghum 6.9 vs 6.5.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 11,000 soybeans; 2,000 soyoil; 7,000 soymeal and 10,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net even SRW Wheat; long 231,000 Corn; net long 95,000 Soybeans; net long 16,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 66,000 lota of soyoil.
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