Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed . SK is up 2 cents and near 14.13. SMK is near 415.7. BOK is near 50.87. Oil share of crush at new highs. CK is up 6 cents and near 5.38. WK is up 1 cent and near 6.52. KWK is near 6.21. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher and near 3 month high. Crude is higher. Economist forecast Crude to trade over $70. Gold is lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 7 cents; HRW down 12; HRS up 3; Corn is down 9 cents; Soybeans up 4 cents; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil up 80 points. Crushing margins are down 5 cents at $0.61 (July); Oil share up 1% at 37%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 30 yuan in soybeans, up 31 in Corn, down 17 in Soymeal, up 72 in Soyoil, and up 62 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 10 ringgit at 3,741 (basis May) supported by a weaker ringgit.
In Argentina, dryness continues to be a serious concern and crop stress will continue until a generalized soaking rain occurs. Last evening’s GFS model run showed much less rain than the European Model.
Conditions in much of Brazil will continue to be favorable the next two weeks.
China announced new 5 year policy that includes $122.5 billion yuan for stockpiling edible oils, increase corn aces, raise minimum wheat and rice prices, secure animal and plant breeding research, rebuild hog herds and forecast GDP growth at 6 pct.
Argentina soybean crop rated 10 pct G/E vs 44 ly, corn 25 pct G/E vs 50 ly. Argentina and Black Sea sunoil prices are new highs. Ukraine import Argentina soybeans for oil.
Some concerned China has exported only 38 pct US corn commit. Some est China imports at 30 mmt.
Brazil corn plantings delayed. Corn export may not be available until July-Aug.
US wheat futures in a carry, EU and Black Sea high inverses. US exports not competitive to buyers
Managed funds could add to longs March 14; in front of USDA March 31 report and 2021 spring weather
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,470 mil bu vs USDA 1,502, soybean at 117 mil bu vs USDA 120
Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout at 839 mil bu vs USDA 826, World 304.3 mmt vs USDA 304.2
Trade est Brazil soybean crop near 133.1 vs USDA 133, Argentina near 47.4 vs USDA 48
Trade est Brazil corn crop near 108.3 vs USDA 109, Argentina near 47 vs USDA 47.5
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 2,000 contracts of Corn; bought 1,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 329,000 Corn; net long 166,000 Soybeans; net long 63,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 121,000 Soyoil.
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