Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded sharply higher. US 87.6 2021 million soybean acres suggest a 2021/22 carryout range from 70 mil bu (50 yield) to 148 (51 yield). Demand would be 4,419 mil bu vs 4,420 this year. Some feel 2020/21 soybean demand could be 20-30 mil bu higher and 2021/22 could also be 20-30 mil bu higher. Key will be export demand. Talk of increase China import demand is key. Some feel SX support is now 13.60. Trade over 13.89 could suggest a test of 15.71. US June 1 soybean stocks were 766 mil bu vs 787 expected and 1,381 last year. On farm stocks 28 pct of total vs 45 last year. SU was up 90 cents and near 14.07. SX is up 81 cents and near 13.94. SU trade above the 100, 20 and 50 day moving averages. SMU is near 377.1. BOU is near 62.64. AM weather maps added rains for US north plains after July 7. Noon maps took the rains out. We see if end users and Managed funds increase buying after today’s report.
CORN
Corn futures traded up the daily price limit after US 2021 acres and June 1 stocks were reported below the trade average. Funds also tried to cover shorts put on in anticipation of higher corn acres. CU was up 40 cents and near 5.99. CZ was up 40 cents and near 5.86. On the close, there were 106,000 CZ contracts wanted. CU traded above the 20 and 50 day moving average. CU was up 3 cents over 5.99. 92.7 2021 million corn acres suggest a 2021/22 carryout range from 880 mil bu (172 yield) to 1,272 (177 yield). Demand would be 14,765 mil bu vs 15,020 this year. Some feel 2020/21 corn demand could be 200-300 mil bu higher and 2021/22 could also be 200-330 mil bu higher. Key will be export demand. Talk of Brazil corn crop below 90 mmt could increase US corn export demand. Some feel CZ support is now 5.69. Trade over 5.86 could suggest a test of 6.90. US June 1 corn stocks were 4,112 mil bu vs 4,144 expected and 5,003 last year. On farm stocks 42 pct of total vs 57 last year. Weekly US ethanol production was up 1 pct from last week and 17 pct from last year. Stocks were up 2 pct from last week and 7 pct from last year. Margins remain negative. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 100-1,050 mt vs 527 last week. AM weather maps added rains for US dry north plains after July 7. Noon maps took the rains out. We see if end users and Managed funds increase buying after today’s report
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher and closed near session high. Wheat futures followed sharp gains in corn. WU was up 33 cents and near 6.79. WHU was up 32 cents and near 6.59. MWU was up 35 cents and near 8.49. US 46.7 2021 million wheat acres suggest a 2021/22 carryout near 760 vs USDA 770. This suggest a crop 10 mil bu higher than previous est. June 1 wheat stocks were 843 mil bu vs 859 expected and 1,028 last year. Lower stocks suggest higher demand and offset the higher acres. Key is final US winter wheat crop size vs spring wheat. US 2021 winter wheat acres were est near 33.0 million vs 33.0 expected and 33.0 in March and 30.4 last year. 2021 spring wheat acres were est near 11.58 vs 11.41 expected and 12.25 last year. US 2021 durum acres were est near 1.48 vs 1.51 expected and 1.68 last year. Weekly US export sales are est near 200-500 mt vs 374 last week. AM weather maps added rains for dry US north plains after July 7. Noon maps took the rains out. We see if end users and Managed funds increase buying after todays report and a dry and warm US north plains summer weather forecast.
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