Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures continued to trade lower on active weather across US Central states. Last week, US soybean crop conditions dropped. Rains across E NE, S IA, MO and IL could stabilize crops there. Much of the US North plains missed the rains. Informa est IA 2021 soybean yield near 56 vs 53 ly, MN 51 vs 49 ly, NE 58 VS 157, ND 35 vs 34, IL 61 vs 59, IN 58 vs 54, OH 52 vs 54 ly and AR 50 vs 50 ly. Dry NW Midwest year of 1988 IA soybean yield was 31, MN 26 and ND 18. SU is back below 13.00. 12.50 is next support. SX is also back below 13.00. 12.50 is next support. Key could be July US Midwest weather, US June 30 acreage and June 1 stocks estimate. Trade is looking for 89.1 million soybean acres vs USDA March guess of 87.6. Stocks near 773 mil bu vs 1,381 last year. Today, SCOTUS ruled in favor of small refiner waivers.
CORN
Corn futures continued to trade lower on active weather across US Central states. Last week, US corn crop conditions dropped. Rains across E NE, S IA, MO and IL could stabilize crops there. Much of the US North plains missed the rains. Informa est IA 2021 corn yield near 199 vs 192 ly, MN 190 vs 192 ly, NE 190 VS 181, SD 157 vs 162, IL 202 vs 187, IN 188 vs 187 and OH 186 vs 171 ly. Dry NW Midwest year of 1988 SD corn yield was 55, IA 84 and MN 74. Key could be July US Midwest weather, US June 30 acreage and June 1 stocks estimate. CU is back below 5.50 and below the 100 day moving average. CZ is back below 5.39. Trade is looking for 93.8 million corn acres vs USDA March guess of 91.1. Stocks near 4,130 mil bu vs 5,003 last year. Today, SCOTUS ruled in favor of small refiner waivers. This week a crop watcher dropped Brazil corn crop to 90 mmt vs USDA 98.5. Brazil farmer slowed. Domestic corn prices are higher than export. Argentina corn harvest is near 48 pct vs 79 ly. Crop is est near 48 mmt vs USDA 47. US Senate cleared the way for AG carbon climate measures.
WHEAT
Wheat traded mixed. WU made new lows and is near 100 day moving average. WU follows corn. US harvest slowed by rains but crop looks to be above USDA last guess. KWU continues to trade between 200 day moving average support and 20 day moving average resistance. Export demand remains slow. US harvest advances with yield better than expected and protein below average. This week, MWU tested 8.20. Contract high is near 8.40. Last week, US HRS crop ratings plunged. Some are concerned that continued dry and warm weather could drop final ND spring wheat yields. Some fear ND farmers could harvest 75 pct of planted acres and final yield could drop as low as 1988 15 bpa. WU is near 6.40. KWU is near 6.10. MWU is near 8.10. Key in what prices could be July US and Russia HRS weather, US June 30 acreage and June 1 stocks estimate. Trade is looking for 46.0 million corn acres vs USDA March guess of 46.4. Stocks near 861 mil bu vs 1,028 last year.
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