Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher but off session lows. Concern about South America crops helped SK trade as high as 14.60 overnight. Uncertainty over wheat USDA will say tomorrow in their March supply and demand report and slow US soybean weekly exports offered resistance. Some feel 14.50 SK may be too high for early March. BOK tested 53.23 overnight on higher palmoil and China soyoil prices. The UDA and energy plan to change two closely watched monthly reports to account for the rapid growth of renewable diesel. Surging demand for renewable diesel is part of a larger global transition to green fuels. Weekly US soybean exports were near 21 mil bu versus 21 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,932 mil bu versus 1,102 last year. USDA goal is 2,250 mil bu versus 1,682 last year.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher but off the overnight highs. Talk of weather lowering South America crops offered support to both corn and soybeans. CK ended near 5.47. Range was 5.37-5.56. Some feel while talk of tightening US balance sheet suggest corn futures need to trade higher, fact we are near 5.50 in early March could suggest prices are a little high for now. Trade over 5.50 could suggest and eventual test of 6.25. North Brazil is seeing too much rain. This could slow plantings there. S Brazil and Argentina weather is dry and could reduce corn crops there. Most doubt USDA will make big changes in tomorrow’s report. Trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is near 1,471 mil bu versus 1,502 in Feb. Most private guesses and near 1,150. USDA is expected to estimate World corn stocks near 284.2 mmt versus 286.5 in Feb. Trade estimates the Brazil crop near 108.4 mmt versus 109.0 and Argentina near 47.0 versus 47.5. Weekly US corn exports were near 60.8 mil bu versus 80.5 last week and 32.6 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,087.4 mil bu versus 591.9 last year. USDA goal is 2,600 mil bu versus 1,778 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,800-2,900 mil bu. US Delta and S Midwest 6-10 day forecast call for above normal rains. This could slow corn plantings there.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Talk that US south Plains could see needed rains early next week offered resistance. Most feel the overnight highs near 6.62 WK, 6.35 KWK and 6.52 MWK may be a little high for early March. US markets are in carrys due to slow export demand while EU and Black Sea futures are in large inverses. Current US prices are not competitive to buyers. Some buyers may wait for lower EU and Black Seas new crop prices to add to needs. Weekly US wheat exports were near 17 mil bu versus 16 last year. Season to date exports are near 683 mil bu versus 708 last year. USDA goal is 985 mil bu versus 976 last year. Most doubt USDA will make any changes to US demand and carryout and World wheat supply and demand on tomorrows report. Trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is near 839 mil bu versus 836 in Feb. USDA is expected to estimate World wheat stocks near 304.3 mmt versus 304.2 in Feb.
Chicago May wheat futures chart
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