Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower but closed off session lows. Concern about late Brazil harvest and rains reducing quality offered support and offset concern about slowdown in China buying and seasonal drop in US soybean exports. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 100-500 mt vs 167 last week. Total commit is near 60 mmt vs 34 last year. USDA goal is 61 mmt vs 45 last year. Despite Brazil rains most estimate the crop near a record 133.0 mmt. It is dry in Argentina but they continue to offer soymeal below US prices. China soybean futures made new highs. Key could be USDA est of March 1 soybean stocks on March 31 and est of US 2021 acres. Talk USDA may not make big changes to US 2020/21 soybean balance sheet on March 9 also offers resistance.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Technically selling weighed on futures. Talk of increase South America supplies and exports offered seasonal resistance. Still US domestic cash values are strong and futures inverse suggest tighter US supplies. Some fear that USDA may not make big changes to US 2020/21 balance sheet on March 9. This could disappoint the demand bulls. Managed funds are big longs and could liquidate positions into South America harvest and US planting season. Dalian corn futures remain near historical highs but there is no new evidence of new interest in US corn. Weekly US ethanol production was up 29 pct from last week but still down 21 pct from last year. Stocks dropped 1 pct from last week and are down 10 pct from last year. Margins improved but are still negative. Argentina weather is dry but they are still offering corn for export below US prices. Key to corn prices could be USDA est of US 2021 acres and spring weather. Weekly US corn export sales are near 400-800 mt vs 453 last week. Total commit is near 59 mmt vs 26 last year. USDA goal is 66 mmt vs 45 ly. There is no signs that US export will not meet and could even surpass USDA goal.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. WK continues to chop around between 6.40 and 6.80. Wheat futures are struggling with talk of lower EU and Russia wheat exports and high inverses in Matif and Russia wheat futures versus low US wheat export demand and carries in US wheat futures. Talk of higher US GDP could increase food demand. Food services could be preparing for increase post Covid food demand. House took out aid to famers in new stimulus deal. Senate Republicans will try to add it back in. Wheat prices may be up to north hemisphere spring weather. US south plains could see rains tomorrow and late next week. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 100-500 mt vs 167 last week. Total commit is near 23 mmt vs 22 last year. USDA goal is 27 mmt vs 26 last year.
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