Ag Market View for Jan 20

Soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat traded lower. Soyoil traded higher. US stocks were higher. Crude was higher. Gold was higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans continued to traded lower. SH closed near 13.69. Range was 13.52-13.84. Managed funds are net sellers of 8,000 Soybeans; 6,000 soymeal and buyers of 3,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 136,000 Soybeans; net long 73,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 88,000 Soyoil. For the third straight day, grains prices have dropped. Some feel that the market is transitioning from a South America weather market to a demand market. Some feel normal rains over 80 pct of Brazil and 70 pct of Argentina will help stabilize the crops there. Still final crops could be below USDA last estimate. This could still increase US soybean exports and lower US 2020/21 carryout. Most still feel this could help support futures and test last week’s highs and even trade above. Informa will be out tomorrow morning with new estimates of US 2021 planted acres by crop based on a recent survey. Informa will also update US 2021 crop production. Informa has been using a US 2021 soybean planted acreage of 89.1 million versus 83.1 last year and 76.1 in 2019. They are using a trend yield of 52.0 versus 50.7 last year and 47.4 in 2019.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower. CH closed near 5.21. Today’s range was 5.12 to 5.26. Managed funds are net sellers of 4,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 385,000 corn contracts. For the third straight day, grains prices have dropped. Some feel that the market is transitioning from a South America weather market to a demand market. Some feel normal rains over 80 pct of Brazil and 70 pct of Argentina will help stabilize the crops there. Still final crops could be below USDA last estimate. This could still increase US corn exports and lower US 2020/21 carryout. Most still feel this could help support futures and test last week’s highs and even trade above. China corn futures traded 11 cents lower but is still near all-time highs. There still some that feel China 2020 corn crop is 25-30 mmt below USDA last estimate. This could increase China 2021 and 2022 corn imports. Informa will be out tomorrow morning with new estimates of US 2021 planted acres by crop based on a recent survey. Informa will also update US 2021 crop production. Informa has been using a US 2021 corn planted acreage of 91.7 million versus 91.0 last year and 89.7 in 2019. They are using a trend yield of 181.0 versus 175.8 last year and 167.5 in 2019.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower. WH closed near 6.67. Range was 6.56 to 6.76. KWH closed near 6.36. Range was 6.33 to 6.47. Lower corn and soybean prices may have weighed on wheat prices. There was some talk that domestic flour buyers may be pricing Q3 basis. Flour users also looking for futures levels to prices Q3 and Q4 demand. There is new concern that slow inoculations could slow US economic recovering. New US POTUS wants to inoculate 100 million Americans in next 100 days. Some feel that could be key to food and fuel demand. Informa will be out tomorrow morning with new estimates of US 2021 planted acres by crop based on a recent survey. Informa will also update US 2021 crop production. Informa has been using a US 2021 wheat planted acreage of 45.5 million versus 44.3 last year and 45.0 in 2019. They are using a trend yield of 49.5 versus 49.7 last year and 52.0 in 2019. There is talk US spring wheat farmers could reduce acres due to higher corn and soybean prices versus wheat.

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