Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean managed a small loss on the close. SK range was 13.77-13.91. Some selling increased on talk that Argentina could see needed rains In the 11-15 day period. Argentina 6-10 day forecast is dry. Weekly USDA export sales report will be delayed until Friday. Some feel sales will slow. Key will be China demand. Next weeks US Midwest temps should moderate which could allow For improved cash movement. Also on Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. Trade looks for 89.4 soybean acres. 2021 US soybean crop of 4,506. Trade estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 179 vs 120 this year. Friday, March grain option expire. Managed funds may add to soybean longs on Monday if Argentina and south Brazil forecast is dry. Talk of lower weekly US soybean exports could widen soybean spreads.
CORN
Corn futures closed slightly higher. CK range was 5.44-5.52. Talk of more Normal temps next week could improve US domestic logistics and grain Flow. IL river freezing and slow rail had reduced needed grain flow to Export ports. Weekly USDA export sales report will be delayed until Friday. Most feel demand for US corn will continue to improve. Fact Brazil 2nd crop plantings have been delayed and south Brazil and Argentina weather could be dry over next 6-10 days offered support. Weekly US ethanol production could drop from last week. Stocks Could also be lower than last week. Also on Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. Trade looks for 92.9 million US 2021 corn acres, 2021 US corn crop near 15,160 mil bu and a US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,725 mil bu versus 1,502 this year. This could be negative to corn futures. Corn futures are at a critical juncture. Open interest dropped on Tuesday due to increase EFP. On Friday, March grain option expire. Some suggest long OTM corn calls exercise the calls and roll to the May. These groups look for higher trend in futures. There is talk though that large Managed funds may add to corn longs on Monday if Argentina and south Brazil forecast is dry. Talk of increase demand for corn could increase corn spreads inverses. Fact IL river froze is adding uncertainty to March corn deliveries. Before the freeze most were looking for no corn deliveries.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. WK range was 6.42-6.65. KWK range was 6.25-6.46. There may have been some long liquidation on talk of more Normal US south plains temps next week and fact some feel winterkill Damage may have been low despite record cold temps. Fact France Matif wheat futures and Black Sea wheat futures were lower and US Dollar was higher may have also offered resistance to wheat futures. Weekly US wheat export sales report will be delayed until Friday. Some feel sales will remain on pace with last year. Some feel sales Need to increase to push wheat futures higher. On Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. Trade looks for 45.3 all wheat acres, 2021 US wheat crop near 1,874 mil bu and 2021/22 US wheat carryout near 769 mil bu vs 836 this year. This could offer support to post harvest wheat futures. Uncertain Russia wheat export policy could also offer key support to wheat futures.
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