Written Commentary
Soybeans, new crop corn and wheat traded higher. Old crop corn traded lower. Energies, Gold lower. Dow at new record high today.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures were higher led by nearby. There is more talk of US old crop supplies tightening before harvest. There is talk that South America is offering soybean for export below US prices. There is also talk that 2-3 South America soybean cargoes may have been sold into US east coast. Brazil weather is still mostly dry. Informa est Brazil 2021 soybean crop near 137.5 mmt vs USDA 134.0. They est Argentina 2021 soybean crop at 44.5 mmt vs USDA 47.5. Informa est Brazil 2022 soybean crop at 140.0 mmt and Argentina 55.7. Informa also est US 2021 soybean acres near 89.8 million versus USDA guess of 87.6. Weekly US soybean exports were near 11 mil bu vs 11 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,998 mil bu vs 1,168 ly. USDA goal is 2,250 vs 1,682 ly. Some could see exports closer to 2,275. Forecast of colder than normal EU temps offered support to World rapeseed prices.
CORN
Corn inverses are eroding as USDA March numbers suggest lower US 2021 corn acres. There is talk that South America is offering corn for export below US prices. Brazil weather is still mostly dry. Informa est Brazil 2021 corn crop near 107.5 mmt vs USDA 109.0. They estimated Argentina 2021 corn crop at 45.5 mmt vs USDA 47.5. Informa est Brazil 2022 corn crop at 115.0 mmt and Argentina 50.0. Informa also estimated US 2021 corn acres near 93.6 million versus USDA guess of 91.1. Weekly US corn exports were near 75 mil bu vs 50 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,404 mil bu vs 756 ly. USDA goal is 2,600 vs 1,778 last year. Some could see exports closer to 2,900. There was talk that China may be done buying US old crop corn but on Friday may have bought 1.0-1.5 mmt new crop US corn. US weekly China corn exports are near 500 mt. Some feel exports could increase to 750 mt. This could suggest that 1.0-2.0 mmt of open unshipped corn sales could be rolled forward to new crop. Some feel China may buy more than 21-22 mmt of US corn in 2021/22. There are reports of increase field work across parts of the US Midwest. Some WC IL farmers may be plantings corn today. Our weather guys April Midwest forecast is warm with mostly normal rains. Summer 2021 forecast calls for normal to above temps. Rain could be below normal in north plains and south plains with normal rains in the Midwest. Some could see drier late July and August.
WHEAT
Wheat futures closed mixed. USDA announced 130 mt US wheat to unknown. Some feel this could be China annual buying of US SRW. Today USDA will release their first US winter wheat crop rating by state. Informa today estimated US 2021 all wheat crop near 1,946 mil bu vs 1,826 last year. Informa estimated US 2021 winter wheat crop near 1,316 mil bu versus 1,171 last year. HRW crop is est near 739 mil bu vs 659 ly. SRW crop is est near 340 mil bu vs 266 last year. Informa also estimated World 2021 wheat crop near 788 mmt vs 777 last year. Russia 69 vs 63 ly. Weekly US wheat exports were near 22 mil bu vs 12 ly. Season to date exports are near 768 mil bu vs 765 ly. USDA goal including flour is 985 vs 965 ly. Some est KC futures to range from 6.00-7.00 between now and July. Chicago wheat futures could range from 6.00-7.25. Minn wheat futures could range from 6.50-7.50.
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