Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher on talk of additional China buying US soybeans. China announced they will increase selling commodities from reserve due to floods and Covid spread. China also announced they will maintain 43 million hog herd from 2021 to 2025. USDA announced 131 mt US soybeans to China. China has been active buyers of domestic soymeal. this should increase soybean imports. SU remains range bound. US August weather key. SU flag formation has support near 13.16 and resistance from 13.62 to 13.67, 13.73 and 13.90. 2 week of the US Midwest updated weather maps were drier. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,375. Range 4,273-4.450. Trade est World 21/22 soybean end stocks near 94.6 mmt vs USDA 94.5. Trade est US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 148 vs USDA 135 and 2021/22 159 vs USDA 155. Trade est US 2021 soybean crop near 4,375 mil bu with range 4,273-4.450 USDA July guess was 4,405.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. CU ended near 5.55. CZ ended near 5.56. CU loss to CZ on talk of increase Index funds rolling longs from Sep to Dec. Corn was supported by talk of slightly lower US 2021 corn crop and potential for increase 21/22 export demand. US business are asking Biden to restart trade talks with China and drop tariffs on China imports. Talk this week of increase green energy raised concern about US corn demand. Some feel increase of 2 billion more people in the World between now and 2050 suggest more energy demand than just green fuel. There were also questions about increase of non meat protein. Increase in global food demand will insure need for higher meat production. 2 week of the US Midwest updated weather maps were drier. Rains may be confined to E MN, NE IA, SW WI and N IL. Warm and dry Weather could return to the Midwest after August 14, USDA report August 12. Trade est US corn crop at 15,004. Range 14,828-15,210. Informa est US ECB corn plus Iowa at 7.3 bil bu vs 6.8 ly. NW 2.4 vs 2.4 ly. NW est seems high. Trade est Brazil corn crop near 88.7 vs USDA 93. Some est are as low as 80. Trade also est World 21/22 corn end stocks near 288.2 mmt vs USDA 291.2. Trade also est US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,297 mil bu vs USDA 1,432. CU flag formation has support near 5.41 and resistance from 5.55 to 5.58, 5.70 and 5.70.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Talk of lower 2021 wheat supplies offered support. WU ended near 7.19. Range was 7.09 to 7.24. KWU ended near 7.06. Range was 6.89 to 7.08. Next resistance is near 7.19 then 7.45 high. Winter wheat supported by talk of lower EU and China wheat quality. MWU ended near 9.16. Range was 9.02 to 9.19. Minn futures supported by concern over lower Canada and Russia spring wheat crop. USDA est of Canada and Russia wheat crop could be as much as 20 mmt too high. Trade est US all wheat crop near 1,723 mil bu vs 1,746 in July and 1,826 last year. HRW 806 vs 659, SRW 363 vs 266, HRS 325 vs 530 and durum 35 vs 69. Trade est World 2021/22 wheat end stocks near 288.1 mmt vs USDA 291.7. Trade also est US wheat 2021/22 carryout near 644 vs USDA 885. Some are as low as 590.
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