Ag Market Recap for Apr 22

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SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is higher. Fact China bought US soybeans is supportive. One China Ag group suggesting China may soon buy 10 mmt US soybeans and 1 mmt cotton may be supportive. Fact Brazil farmer is an active seller of soybeans with Real record low may be offering resistance.  Favorable US Midwest 2 week weather offers resistance. Temporary closing of US meat plants could reduce meat production and soymeal use. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 300-750 mt versus 244 last week. Total commit is near 1,382 mil bu versus 1,625 last year. Over the last 24 hours May soybean futures have rallied 30 cents. Key resistance is near 8.50. Most are still looking for lower 2020 soybean prices if US 2020 weather is normal.

CORN

Corn futures found some new buying on talk China may soon buy US corn. One China Ag group suggest China might buy 20 mmt of US corn to add to reserves. China has been a small buy of US corn to satisfy import license requirement. There is no timetable for the buying but corn would be added to reserves. Over the last 24 hours May corn has rallied 10 cents. Resistance is near 3.25-3.30. Corn futures were supported by an oversold, technical picture and lack of US farmer selling. It was disappointing that S Korea and Taiwan both overnight bought non US corn. Weekly US ethanol production was down only 1 pct but remains down 46 pct from last year. Stocks were up slightly but also up 21 pct from last year. The data offered support to corn futures. Most still look for lower 2020 corn futures prices if US 2020 weather is normal. C IL sources report that many farmers have completed both corn and soybean plantings. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 600-1,100 mt versus 906 last week. Total commit is near 1,364 mil bu versus 1,759 last year. 

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower due to good rains falling across parts of KS and OK. This week USDA dropped weekly US Winter wheat crop ratings from 62 pct good/ex to 57. Most of the decline was in KS, NE, OK, TX, WA and OR. Europe and Black Sea 2 week weather outlook is at best erratic. There could be showers that could help some crops but more is needed. Wheat futures could trend lower if north Hemisphere weather turns normal. Continued drier pattern in Europe and Black Sea could send prices higher. This week, EU Matif wheat Futures traded higher. Managed funds added 10,000 contracts and are now estimated to be net long 88,800 contracts. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 100-300 mt versus 178 last week. New crop sales could be near 200-500 mt versus 419 last week. As always this time of year, wheat futures turn volatile with wide prices swings depending upon the latest weather forecast.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.