Written Commentary
Source: FutureSource
After last week’s rally in global wheat markets, US wheat futures have been mixed in today’s trading. After last Thursday’s announcement and the bullish sentiment, Chicago Dec-21 wheat gained 4.4% across the week and closed on Friday at a 6 week high. Chicago Dec-21 is currently trading a cent up and Kansas Dec-21 4 cents down at time of writing. Minneapolis Dec-21 is also trading unchanged at the time of writing. US Markets are awaiting Biden’s trade rep, Kathrine Tai’s speech later this morning. Early press predictions would indicate that the Biden administration is pushing for the full implementation of Phase 1 commitments. With 3 months to go on Phase 1, time remains for China to catch up. Washington Think tank group believes they are around 62% complete of the $113bn initially outlined.
Matif wheat remained bullish, Dec-21 settled up €1.00 on Friday at €265.25/t and May-22 settled up €1.50 on Friday at €257.50/t. Russian export quotas continue to add support. Eduard Zernin, Head of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, announced in an email following a meeting over the weekend between the Russian Ag ministry and the Grain Exporter’s Union, that the quotas will be set from Mid Feb 2022. The quota figure will be defined based on this year’s exports and next year’s domestic demand, he said. The Russian Ag ministry expects wheat exports to be around 31.5Mmt this season, including 14Mmt in January through June 2022. Russian total winter wheat area could also decrease from last year by between 0.5-1.0m hectares (Sovecon) and 0.5m hectares (IKAR). There are also murmurs that Iran could need to triple wheat imports for 2021/22 due to crop failure fears after hot and dry conditions are leading to crop failures.
London wheat futures settled unchanged, Nov-21 settled at £202.50/t and May-22 settled down £0.25 on Friday at £209/t. Prices remain strong due to the global wheat market rally at the end of last week and due to UK feed wheat still being the cheapest on the European market, export demand continues. Delivered values are following futures’ support, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia was quoted at £200.50/t last Thursday, gaining £7.50/t Thursday to Thursday (AHDB).
Matif rapeseed found support after cooling off on Friday. Nov-21 settled up €4.75 on Friday at €649/t and May-22 settled up €4.50 on Friday at €626.75/t. Short term outlook remains bullish, but when will it hit a trading peak? Nov-21 passed the €650/t mark in today’s trading high at €650.25/t. UK delivered rapeseed was quoted into Erith at £549.50/t (Nov-21) but market rumours are saying that farmers are still unwilling sellers.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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