Written Commentary
The London market was closed today due to the bank holiday. US wheat markets found support earlier on in the day before leveling back with Chicago Wheat Dec-21 trading marginally lower. At the end of last week, Ag Canada put the Canadian all-wheat crop at just 20.2Mmt against the USDA’s 24Mmt. Statistics Canada released their figures today which estimate’s the all-wheat harvest to be higher than Ag Leader’s estimate at 22.9Mmt but still under the USDA’s figure of 24Mmt which should help to support US wheat markets. Hurricane Ida is wreaking havoc in Louisiana as winds up to 150mph and a storm surge forcing Old Man river to flow north. Market rumours are anticipating grain export operations to be impacted along with some crop quality and size reductions once the rain hits the Tennessee River valley.
Matif Dec-21 futures continue to be supported as concerns over Russian export taxes limit offers. Matif Dec-21 futures settled with no change on Friday at €246.75/t. Egypt’s GASC has received offers in the latest wheat tender with the lowest offer today believed to be $304.25/t FOB for wheat sourced from Ukraine, submitted by trading house Inerco for 60kt (Reuters). Ukraine is likely to harvest 80.6Mmt of grain in 2021, a record quantity that will allow the export of 60.68Mmt, the preliminary ministry’s data showed today.
China has stepped up purchasing taking 256kt of soybeans on this morning’s daily reporting that could provide support. CBOT Soybeans Nov-21 were trading down 17 cents at the time of writing. Statistics Canada put Canadian canola production at 14.7Mmt, down 24% from last year and larger than the average trade forecast of 14.1Mmt. ICE Canada Nov canola futures were trading down 12 cents on Friday’s close at the time of writing.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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