Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
Well, the usual chatter of US Congress showdown in the wires as deadline looms. US defence budget is the primary issue. Russian Black Sea commander Sokolov shown on a video call after the Ukrainian videos claiming that he’d been killed. More Russian pyro in Ukraine with 36 Shahad drones fired across towards the Danube area overnight, following attacks on Odessa. Tit for tat very much so and if/when the longer range missiles appear, expect to see more of this. Lavrov stated to the UN he sees no grains corridor deal at all but the next Ukrainian boat left Chornomorsk on the freedom corridor. A reported 12 more boats confirmed for out loading corn to China according to market chat for Oct. If the Black Sea fleet is a little hesitant in getting too close to Ukrainian missile systems and sea drones, then how will they be able to impose a blockade in theory of UKR grains exports if they wanted to? Better send that question to the Kremlin. Lots of immigration and HS2 chat in UK news. Brent crude was trading up as was USD.
Wheat markets were pretty flat after a mixed day. US markets were trading up in the overnight session before falling back later in the day to unchanged levels. EU weekly wheat exports reached 245kt with YTD sat at 6.88Mmt, down 27% Y-O-Y. A lot of chatter about the Russian export prices with current prices sat for Russian Black Sea FOB @ $235/t last week according to IKAR. Matif kicked off this morning unchanged before trading down marginally lower into the close. London wheat had a better day today as an uptick in the futures saw some farmers selling reported across the UK. Nov-23 opened up higher, hitting a trading high of £196.65/t before falling back. Lots of market chatter that Ensus and Vivergo are firing on all cylinders.
USDA Crop progress report stated the soybean crop was 12% harvested, compared to estimates for 14%, and the corn harvest was 15% complete, compared to estimates for 17%. The agency rated 50% of the soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, and the lowest for this time of year since 2013. Corn ratings improved, with 53% of the crop rated as good to excellent, up from 52% previously.
Chicago soybeans started off the day supported before slipping, initially helped with dry conditions in Brazil. Argentine soy dollar scheme likely to meet expectations with domestic sales sat at 3.6Mmt from Sep 5th to 25th. Matif rapeseed had a pretty flat day trading with Nov-23 settling uncahnged on yesterday at €440.75/t.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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